Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
RUS
Polina Iatcenko
#155WTA
1624ELO
1627Grass ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
CHN
Zhuoxuan Bai
#263WTA
1584ELO
1545Grass ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWWW
Iatcenko P.
vs
Bai Z.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:21 UTC
Iatcenko P.63%
Bai Z.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Iatcenko P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Iatcenko P.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Bai Z.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1545
4.6Overall Elo 1624
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1584
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Iatcenko P.Stable
Bai Z.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

24 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Iatcenko P.Bai Z.
1st serve in·Even
60%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Iatcenko P.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bai Z.

Bai Z.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Iatcenko P.

Serve advantage — Bai Z.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Timofeeva M.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Krueger A.
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.
6-34-5
Volynets K.
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.
2-64-6
Grabher J.
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-54-2
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-6
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-63-0
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.
6-724-6
Sramkova R.
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-43-2
Barthel M.
Zhu L.
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
Riera J.
Crawley F.
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
—
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
Gasanova A.
Jones E.
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
Garland J.
Grant T.
Sun L.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
—
—
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
Andreeva E.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.
Sramkova R.
Kostovic T.
—
Zhu L.