Cadence Brace vs Kayla Day — Wimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Round

CAN

Cadence Brace

#217WTA

1516ELO

1433Grass ELO

21 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLLWWLL

—

Sets

Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · 12:30

grass

USA

Kayla Day

#138WTA

1608ELO

1427Grass ELO

26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LLWLWLWWWW

Brace C.

Day K.

Cadence Brace faces Kayla Day in the Wimbledon qualifying round on grass. Kayla Day holds the paper edge — ranked #138.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC

Brace C.28%

Day K.72%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Day K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Cadence Brace comes in with 21 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Kayla Day's 13 and 22.
Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Cadence Brace rising, Kayla Day cooling.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Brace C.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Day K.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.1+6 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.9Grass Elo 1427

3.4Overall Elo 1516

ELO gap

6.6Overall Elo 1608

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

3.64 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

9.0Last match 1h15m

Prev. match

7.0Hard → Grass

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Brace C.Surging

Day K.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

11 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season

Brace C.Day K.

1st serve in·Even

64%

67%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

60%

66%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

42%

48%

Service points won·Slight edge

53%

60%

Return points won·Even

49%

48%

Break points saved·Slight edge

52%

57%

Aces / match·Clear edge

1.6

3.1

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.7

2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Brace C.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Day K.

Day K.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Brace C.

Serve advantage — Day K.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Brace C.Day K.

Freshness·Even

100

Brace C.: 21 days rest · Day K.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CClear

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.