Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika PonchetWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Round
#116WTA
1722ELO
1577Grass ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWLLWW
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#190WTA
1577ELO
1482Grass ELO
29 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWWW
Kudermetova P.
vs
Ponchet J.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Kudermetova P.76%
Ponchet J.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kudermetova P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
6.2+95 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1482
5.9Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1576
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.04 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
3.0Clay → Grass
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
64%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.6
4.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kudermetova P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ponchet J.

Ponchet J.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kudermetova P.

Serve advantage — Kudermetova P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
26
Break points saved·Even
77
75
Break points won·Dominant
96
45
Deciding sets·Clear edge
18
41
Tiebreaks·
20

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
99

Kudermetova P.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.