Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final
Carle M.
Maria Lourdes Carle faces Jeline Vandromme in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Jeline Vandromme holds the paper edge — ranked #161, a roughly 160-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Vandromme J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Jeline Vandromme dropped the opening set before beating Yi Yuan 4–6 6–0 6–2.
- Last match: Maria Lourdes Carle edged Lucie Havlickova in three tight sets (7–5 5–7 6–4).
- Fatigue load: Jeline Vandromme carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadVandromme J.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.