Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline VandrommeWimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
#211WTA
1484ELO
1366Grass ELO
26 yrs · 166 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
#128WTA
1646ELO
1498Grass ELO
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWL
Lourdes Carle M.
7-6 4-6 3-6
Vandromme J.
Lourdes Carle M.
7431
Vandromme J.
6662

Jeline Vandromme defeated Maria Lourdes Carle in the Wimbledon semifinals, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3. Vandromme hit 4 aces and 5 double faults, while Carle had 3 aces and 8 double faults. Vandromme converted 44% of her break points and won 4 service breaks to Carle's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
58%
Return points won·Even
49%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
58%
Aces / match·Even
1.0
1.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 52). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Lourdes Carle M.16%
Vandromme J.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Vandromme J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1478
Surface ELO
5.4+30 Grass Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1557
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1618
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.24 of last 9 on grass
Surface form
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
99
100

Lourdes Carle M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Vandromme J.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
35°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw