Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Polina Kudermetova
UZB
Polina Kudermetova
#116WTA
1722ELO
1577Grass ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Alina Charaeva
RUS
Alina Charaeva
#120WTA
1717ELO
1569Grass ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWLW
Kudermetova P.
vs
Charaeva A.

Polina Kudermetova faces Alina Charaeva in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Polina Kudermetova holds the paper edge — ranked #116, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 128.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTC
Kudermetova P.47%
Charaeva A.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kudermetova P.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Charaeva A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.1+7 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Grass Elo 1569
5.0Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1717
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
6.36 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kudermetova P.Cooling
Charaeva A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
Kudermetova P.Charaeva A.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Even
2.6
2.5
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kudermetova P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Charaeva A.

Charaeva A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Kudermetova P.

Serve advantage — Kudermetova P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kudermetova P.Charaeva A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
48
57
Break points saved·Even
77
75
Break points won·Slight edge
96
85
Deciding sets·Dominant
23
70
Tiebreaks·
—
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kudermetova P.Charaeva A.
Freshness·Clear edge
81
60

Kudermetova P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Charaeva A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 101 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 49%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-07LondonFgrassPolina Kudermetova3-6 6-4 4-6

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
6-26-2
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Iatcenko P.
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Volynets K.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Gasanova A.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Tan H.
Grant T.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
Kawa K.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
Andreescu B.
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.