Mariam Bolkvadze vs Hayu Kinoshita — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
Mariam Bolkvadze
GEO
Mariam Bolkvadze
#539WTA
1479ELO
1397Grass ELO
28 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWWWLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
JPN
Hayu Kinoshita
#227WTA
1577ELO
1464Grass ELO
19 yrs
Last 10
WLLWWLLWWL
Bolkvadze M.
vs
Kinoshita H.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Bolkvadze M.24%
Kinoshita H.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Bolkvadze M.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Kinoshita H.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Grass Elo 1397
Surface ELO
5.8+66 Grass Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1479
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1577
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Bolkvadze M.Stableearly
Kinoshita H.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

10 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season
Bolkvadze M.Kinoshita H.
1st serve in·Even
69%
73%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
38%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
60%
Return points won·Even
50%
47%
Break points saved·Clear edge
44%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.7
1.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bolkvadze M.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Kinoshita H.

Kinoshita H.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Bolkvadze M.

Serve advantage — Kinoshita H.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Bolkvadze M.Kinoshita H.
Freshness·
—
97

Kinoshita H.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Timofeeva M.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Krueger A.
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.
2-64-6
Grabher J.
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.
6-724-6
Sramkova R.
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
Riera J.
Crawley F.
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
Gasanova A.
Jones E.
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
Garland J.
Grant T.
Sun L.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
Andreeva E.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.
Sramkova R.
Kostovic T.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.