Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
Oceane Dodin
FRA
Oceane Dodin
#473WTA
1531ELO
1450Grass ELO
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLLWLL
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
THA
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
#164WTA
1697ELO
1592Grass ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLWWW
Dodin O.
vs
Sawangkaew M.

Oceane Dodin faces Mananchaya Sawangkaew in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Mananchaya Sawangkaew holds the paper edge — ranked #164, a roughly 140-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Dodin O.18%
Sawangkaew M.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sawangkaew M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Dodin O.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sawangkaew M.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.2Grass Elo 1450
Surface ELO
6.8+142 Grass Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1531
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1697
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.45 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Dodin O.Sliding
Sawangkaew M.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

15 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
Dodin O.Sawangkaew M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
45%
Service points won·Even
58%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
48%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.2
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dodin O.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sawangkaew M.

Sawangkaew M.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Dodin O.

Serve advantage — Sawangkaew M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Dodin O.Sawangkaew M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
27
82
Break points saved·Dominant
48
74
Break points won·Dominant
44
92
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
93
Tiebreaks·
12
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Dodin O.Sawangkaew M.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
80

Dodin O.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Sawangkaew M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
6-5
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
6-3 0-2
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
6-1 3-2
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
6-4 1-6 0-0
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-5 2-6 1-3
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
4-4
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
5-7 4-1
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6.0-6.1
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-4 0-0
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.
2-63-6
—
—
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
—
—
Jeanjean L.
—
Gasanova A.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Tan H.
Grant T.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
—
Bronzetti L.
—
—
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
Kawa K.
Day K.
—
—
Zhu L.