Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson — Wimbledon Qualifying Semi-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
RUS
Tatiana Prozorova
#171WTA
1689ELO
1558Grass ELO
22 yrs
Last 10
WLWWLWLWLL
—
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
grass
Heather Watson
GBR
Heather Watson
#491WTA
1572ELO
1505Grass ELO
34 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLLLLWWL
Prozorova T.
vs
Watson H.

Tatiana Prozorova faces Heather Watson in the Wimbledon qualifying semi-final on grass. Tatiana Prozorova holds the paper edge — ranked #171, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Prozorova T.76%
Watson H.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Prozorova T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Prozorova T.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Watson H.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.7+53 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Grass Elo 1505
7.1Overall Elo 1689
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1572
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.8Home country · 25/54 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Prozorova T.Stable
Watson H.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

28 vs 12 matches

Statistics

This season
Prozorova T.Watson H.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
53%
Aces / match·Even
3.4
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Prozorova T.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Watson H.

Watson H.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Prozorova T.

Serve advantage — Prozorova T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Prozorova T.Watson H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
77
20
Break points saved·Dominant
81
43
Break points won·Dominant
97
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
74
49
Tiebreaks·
—
13

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Prozorova T.Watson H.
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Prozorova T.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Watson H.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 42%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Timofeeva M.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.
6-26-2
Krueger A.
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.
2-64-6
Grabher J.
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Maristany Zuleta De Reales G.
Ortenzi J.
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.
6-724-6
Sramkova R.
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
Riera J.
Crawley F.
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
Gasanova A.
Jones E.
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
Garland J.
Grant T.
Sun L.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
Andreeva E.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.
Sramkova R.
Kostovic T.
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.