Darja Semenistaja vs Anastasia Gasanova — Wimbledon Qualifying Final

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Final
LAT
Darja Semenistaja
#102WTA
1660ELO
1551Grass ELO
23 yrs · 169 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Thursday, 25 June 2026 ·
grass
Anastasia Gasanova
RUS
Anastasia Gasanova
#210WTA
1499ELO
1436Grass ELO
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWLWL
Semenistaja D.
vs
Gasanova A.

Darja Semenistaja faces Anastasia Gasanova in the Wimbledon qualifying final on grass. Darja Semenistaja holds the paper edge — ranked #102, a roughly 110-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Semenistaja D.82%
Gasanova A.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Semenistaja D. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Semenistaja D.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Gasanova A.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+115 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Grass Elo 1436
5.9Overall Elo 1660
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1499
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.66 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
6.05 of last 9 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Semenistaja D.Stable
Gasanova A.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

32 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
44%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
48%
Break points saved·Even
48%
48%
Aces / match·Even
1.4
1.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Semenistaja D.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Gasanova A.

Gasanova A.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Semenistaja D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
77
34
Break points saved·Dominant
52
21
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Clear edge
96
74
Tiebreaks·Dominant
98
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Semenistaja D.Gasanova A.
Freshness·Even
74
78

Semenistaja D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Gasanova A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 24 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.
6-26-2
Volynets K.
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.
7-5 4-6 0-5
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.
Watson H.
Krueger A.
Iatcenko P.
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
Volynets K.
Jeanjean L.
Semenistaja D.
Gasanova A.
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
Tan H.
Grant T.
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.
Kudermetova P.
—
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
Kawa K.
Day K.
Sasnovich A.
Andreescu B.
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.