Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol ZhaoWimbledon Qualifying Round

Wimbledon · WTA · Qualifying Round
#243WTA
1357ELO
1297Grass ELO
30 yrs
Last 10
LLLWWWWWWW
Sets
Tuesday, 23 June 2026 ·
grass
#427WTA
1398ELO
1385Grass ELO
31 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWLLLL
Mikulskyte J.
vs
Zhao C.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:20 UTC
Mikulskyte J.29%
Zhao C.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zhao C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Grass Elo 1297
Surface ELO
6.1+87 Grass Elo edge
6.2Overall Elo 1357
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1398
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.24 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Last match 2h45m
Prev. match
9.0Last match 1h24m
7.0Hard → Grass
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Zhao C.Risingearly

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
59%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
38%
Service points won·Even
54%
51%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
49%
57%
Aces / match·Even
1.9
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mikulskyte J.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Zhao C.

Zhao C.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Mikulskyte J.

Serve advantage — Mikulskyte J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
20
12
Break points saved·Slight edge
25
19
Break points won·Clear edge
81
63
Deciding sets·Even
35
39
Tiebreaks·
40

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Mikulskyte J.: 21 days rest · Zhao C.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.