Jasmine Paolini vs Robin Montgomery — Wimbledon Round of 128
Paolini J.
Jasmine Paolini faces Robin Montgomery in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Jasmine Paolini is the paper favourite — ranked #14, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage — but Robin Montgomery rides a 9-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Paolini J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jasmine Paolini 19 games in 14 days, Robin Montgomery 100.
- Under pressure: Jasmine Paolini has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Robin Montgomery's 57).
- Last match: Robin Montgomery dropped the opening set before beating Marina Bassols Ribera 3–6 6–1 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPaolini J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Montgomery R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.