Elise Mertens vs Laura Siegemund — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
Elise Mertens
BEL
Elise Mertens
#26WTA
1898ELO
1753Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWLWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Laura Siegemund
GER
Laura Siegemund
#40WTA
1779ELO
1664Grass ELO
$730kYTD
$8.8MCAREER
38 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLWLW
Mertens E.
vs
Siegemund L.

Elise Mertens faces Laura Siegemund in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Elise Mertens holds the paper edge — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Mertens E.76%
Siegemund L.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mertens E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mertens E.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Siegemund L.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+89 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Grass Elo 1664
6.9Overall Elo 1898
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1779
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.56 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.4Won 57% in GBR (35)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mertens E.Cooling
Siegemund L.Rising

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
Mertens E.Siegemund L.
1st serve in·Clear edge
61%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
42%
Break points saved·Even
52%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
1.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mertens E.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Siegemund L.

Siegemund L.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Serve advantage — Mertens E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mertens E.Siegemund L.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
76
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
80
Break points won·Slight edge
96
89
Deciding sets·Even
73
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
65
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mertens E.Siegemund L.
Freshness·Even
80
81

Mertens E.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Siegemund L.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-08-31US OpenR128hardElise Mertens6-2 6-2
2018-04-30RabatR16clayElise Mertens6-7(5) 6-0 3-1 RET
View full head-to-head →

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.[2]
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-26-2
Volynets K.[5]
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.[7]
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.[27]
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.[9]
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.[25]
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.[22]
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.[14]
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.[32]
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.[30]
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Watson H.
3-66-26-1
Krueger A.[2]
Iatcenko P.
7-686-1
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
6-26-0
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
6-31-61-6
Volynets K.[5]
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-64-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Gasanova A.
4-62-6
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
6-24-66-1
Tan H.
Grant T.
4-66-75
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
7-55-71-6
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-16-2
Kudermetova P.[11]
Charaeva A.[22]
4-66-46-1
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
6-44-66-3
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
4-66-37-65
Kawa K.[14]
Day K.[32]
2-65-7
Sasnovich A.[15]
Andreescu B.
3-66-74
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.[30]
6-36-4