Polina Kudermetova vs Liudmila Samsonova — Wimbledon Round of 128

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 128
Polina Kudermetova
UZB
Polina Kudermetova
#116WTA
1722ELO
1577Grass ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
grass
Liudmila Samsonova
RUS
Liudmila Samsonova
#42WTA
1772ELO
1711Grass ELO
$691kYTD
$8.6MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLLWLW
Kudermetova P.
vs
Samsonova L.

Polina Kudermetova faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Liudmila Samsonova is the paper favourite — ranked #42, defending last year's quarter-final, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage — but Polina Kudermetova arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on grass to Liudmila Samsonova's 1. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Liudmila Samsonova ahead 1–0 on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Kudermetova P.27%
Samsonova L.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Samsonova L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kudermetova P.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Samsonova L.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.3Grass Elo 1577
Surface ELO
6.7+134 Grass Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1722
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1772
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.76 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
7.0Reached the quarters here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kudermetova P.Cooling
Samsonova L.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

31 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season
Kudermetova P.Samsonova L.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
53%
Aces / match·Even
2.6
2.5
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kudermetova P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Samsonova L.

Samsonova L.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kudermetova P.

Serve advantage — Kudermetova P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kudermetova P.Samsonova L.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
51
70
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
93
Break points won·Even
96
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
28
59
Tiebreaks·
—
62

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kudermetova P.Samsonova L.
Freshness·Clear edge
62
76

Kudermetova P.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32hardPolina Kudermetova6-7(7) 6-3 6-2
2023-06-12s HertogenboschR16grassLiudmila Samsonova6-4 6-1

Draw — qualifying

Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Timofeeva M.[1]
Osuigwe W.
6-16-4
Rus A.
Podrez V.
4-64-6
Monnet C.
Prozorova T.
2-64-6
Watson H.
Sherif M.[21]
6-26-2
Krueger A.[2]
Knutson G.
7-57-5
Hontama M.
Urhobo A.
7-666-3
Iatcenko P.
Romero Gormaz L.
6-06-3
Bai Z.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-27-5
Korneeva A.
Shubladze A.
2-67-626-3
Brancaccio N.
Lazaro Garcia A.
3-64-6
Riera J.
D. Britton
2-66-26-4
Crawley F.
Sakatsume H.[19]
7-54-67-68
Wang X.
Guo H.
7-646-3
Radivojevic L.
Bassols Ribera M.
7-6102-66-77
Dolehide C.
Montgomery R.
4-66-71
Mcdonald E.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-36-744-6
Volynets K.[5]
Samson L.
7-656-1
Miyazaki Y.
Yaneva E.
2-64-6
Gorgodze E.
Valdmannova V.
6-27-62
You X.
Jeanjean L.[23]
6-42-63-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Siskova A.
7-621-67-5
Hon P.
Hibino N.
2-62-6
Lepchenko V.
Gasanova A.
6-21-66-710
Fruhvirtova L.
Jones E.[29]
2-61-6
Quevedo K.[7]
Ishii S.
6-06-3
Papamichail D.
Liu C.
2-61-6
Tubello A.
Pridankina E.
2-60-6
Rajecki A.
Lamens S.[27]
3-65-7
Uchijima M.
Adeshina E.
1-66-35-7
Tan H.
Pohankova M.
7-632-66-1
Naef C.
Garland J.
6-35-74-6
Grant T.
Preston T.[18]
6-12-66-4
Sun L.[9]
Klimovicova L.
7-637-5
Pigossi L.
Dodin O.
5-74-6
Koevermans A.
Sawangkaew M.
3-66-14-6
Cross K.
Stoiana M.[25]
3-64-6
Galfi D.[10]
Jorge F.
6-753-6
Fita Boluda A.
Gjorcheska L.
2-64-6
Mikulskyte J.
Zhao C.
6-37-66
Inglis M.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-66-34-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ponchet J.
1-66-26-3
Friedsam A.
Ngounoue C.
3-65-7
Rame A.
Uebelhoer C.
3-67-52-6
Mandlik E.
Charaeva A.[22]
2-64-6
Grabher J.[12]
Bolkvadze M.
4-66-76
Kinoshita H.
Tomova V.
7-56-3
Carle M.
Havlickova L.
7-55-76-4
Vandromme J.
Yuan Y.
4-66-06-2
Salkova D.[13]
Shymanovich I.
6-756-34-6
Minnen G.
Ferro F.
6-36-1
Sebov K.
Ortenzi J.
4-66-36-2
Noha Akugue N.
Pigato L.[28]
7-626-3
Kawa K.[14]
Bandecchi S.
6-16-3
Giovannini L.
Stefanini L.
6-766-75
Ma Y.
Andreeva E.
0-63-6
Brace C.
Day K.[32]
4-63-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
Dunne K.
1-66-36-2
S. Hunter
Costoulas S.
7-56-4
Andreescu B.
Hercog P.
6-46-2
Masarova R.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-724-6
Sramkova R.[16]
Hruncakova V.
7-657-63
Ku Y.
Kostovic T.
1-64-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Lee C.
6-44-66-3
Barthel M.
Zhu L.[30]
4-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Podrez V.
6-46-2
Prozorova T.
Watson H.
7-53-65-7
Krueger A.[2]
Hontama M.
6-35-76-3
Iatcenko P.
Bai Z.
7-676-2
Korneeva A.
Lazaro Garcia A.
6-26-757-5
Riera J.
Crawley F.
2-66-36-71
Wang X.
Bassols Ribera M.
6-31-60-4
Montgomery R.
Kalieva E.[31]
6-26-2
Volynets K.[5]
E. Yaneva
6-16-4
Gorgodze E.
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-62-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Hibino N.
6-41-66-2
Gasanova A.
Jones E.[29]
5-76-46-3
Quevedo K.[7]
Liu C.
4-64-6
Pridankina E.
Lamens S.[27]
7-54-66-3
Adeshina E.
Tan H.
2-62-6
Garland J.
Grant T.
4-64-6
Sun L.[9]
Dodin O.
6-7106-75
Sawangkaew M.
Stoiana M.[25]
2-66-47-5
Jorge F.
Gjorcheska L.
7-52-61-6
Mikulskyte J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
3-63-6
Kudermetova P.[11]
Ngounoue C.
6-16-2
Uebelhoer C.
Charaeva A.[22]
7-54-60-6
Bolkvadze M.
Kinoshita H.
6-36-2
Carle M.
Vandromme J.
7-614-63-6
Shymanovich I.
Minnen G.
6-46-2
Sebov K.
Noha Akugue N.
6-45-77-5
Kawa K.[14]
Stefanini L.
6-42-66-2
Andreeva E.
Day K.[32]
2-62-6
Sasnovich A.[15]
S. Hunter
5-76-17-5
Andreescu B.
Teichmann J.[24]
6-746-16-4
Sramkova R.[16]
Kostovic T.
6-46-744-6
Rakotomanga Rajaonah T.
Zhu L.[30]
2-63-6
Timofeeva M.[1]
Watson H.
3-66-26-1
Krueger A.[2]
Iatcenko P.
7-686-1
Korneeva A.
Crawley F.
6-26-0
Bassols Ribera M.
Montgomery R.
6-31-61-6
Volynets K.[5]
Jeanjean L.[23]
3-64-6
Semenistaja D.[6]
Gasanova A.
4-62-6
Liu C.
Pridankina E.
6-24-66-1
Tan H.
Grant T.
4-66-75
Dodin O.
Sawangkaew M.
7-55-71-6
Gjorcheska L.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-16-2
Kudermetova P.[11]
Charaeva A.[22]
4-66-46-1
Bolkvadze M.
Vandromme J.
6-44-66-3
Shymanovich I.
Sebov K.
4-66-37-65
Kawa K.[14]
Day K.[32]
2-65-7
Sasnovich A.[15]
Andreescu B.
3-66-74
Kostovic T.
Zhu L.[30]
6-36-4