Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Marta Kostyuk
UKR
Marta Kostyuk
#13WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1748Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLLWLLW
Kostyuk M.
vs
Paolini J.

Marta Kostyuk faces Jasmine Paolini in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Jasmine Paolini holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 64. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC
Kostyuk M.72%
Paolini J.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kostyuk M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Jasmine Paolini leads the head-to-head 2–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Cincinnati 2023.
  • Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
  • Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kostyuk M.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Grass Elo 1737
Surface ELO
5.1+11 Grass Elo edge
6.6Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1905
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
6.56 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in GBR (21)
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kostyuk M.Stable
Paolini J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

20 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
66%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
70%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
56%
Aces / match·Even
3.0
2.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kostyuk M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
87
Break points won·Even
98
99
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kostyuk M.Paolini J.
Freshness·Slight edge
68
74

Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-08-14CincinnatiR64hardJasmine Paolini6-2 6-1
2022-10-10Cluj NapocaR32hardJasmine Paolini5-7 6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
2-66-72
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.[11]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
4-64-6
Paolini J.[13]
Eala A.[29]
6-44-66-3
Keys M.
Noskova L.
4-66-72
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
4-64-6
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Pegula J.
Gauff C.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Noskova L.
Mertens E.
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