Katie Swan vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
Katie Swan
GBR
Katie Swan
#204WTA
1554ELO
1498Grass ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
Madison Keys
USA26
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Swan K.
1-6 4-6
Keys M.
Swan K.
140
Keys M.
662

Madison Keys defeated Katie Swan in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, winning 6-1, 6-4 on the grass courts. Keys served 3 aces and committed 2 double faults, while converting 38% of her break points and securing 5 service breaks. Swan had 6 double faults and converted 25% of her break points.

Key context

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-04United CupQFhardMadison Keys2-6 6-3 6-4
2023-01-02United CupRRhardMadison Keys2-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR128grassMadison Keys6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Swan K.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
67%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.4
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Swan K.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
49
89
Break points saved·Dominant
56
85
Break points won·Even
95
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
46
94
Tiebreaks·
—
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Swan K.9%
Keys M.91%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Keys M. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swan K.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.3Grass Elo 1498
Surface ELO
8.7+295 Grass Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1554
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1967
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.6Won 77% in United Kingdom (60)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Swan K.Keys M.
Freshness·
—
66

Keys M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw