Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Amanda Anisimova
USA
Amanda Anisimova
#6WTA
1914ELO
1768Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$14MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Madison Keys
USA
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1967ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWLWW
Anisimova A.
vs
Keys M.

Amanda Anisimova faces Madison Keys in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Amanda Anisimova is the paper favourite — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's final — but Madison Keys arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last grass matches to Amanda Anisimova's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:21 UTC
Anisimova A.42%
Keys M.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Anisimova A.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1768
Surface ELO
5.3+25 Grass Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1914
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1967
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
7.88 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.6Won 77% in GBR (61)
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Anisimova A.Stable
Keys M.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
Anisimova A.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
45%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.8
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Anisimova A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Anisimova A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Anisimova A.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
96
93
Break points saved·Even
95
96
Break points won·Slight edge
99
90
Deciding sets·Even
96
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
92
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Anisimova A.Keys M.
Freshness·Dominant
90
62

Anisimova A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Keys M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAmanda Anisimova4-6 6-3 6-2
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.
1-64-6
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
Liu C.
Gauff C.
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
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