Amanda Anisimova vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Amanda Anisimova
USA6
Amanda Anisimova
#10WTA
1914ELO
1768Grass ELO
$1.4MYTD
$14MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
grass
Centre Court · 2nd on
Madison Keys
USA26
Madison Keys
#24WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Anisimova A.
6-3 2-6 3-6
Keys M.
Anisimova A.
6231
Keys M.
3662

Madison Keys defeated Amanda Anisimova in the Round of 32 at Wimbledon, advancing with a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 victory. Keys served 4 aces to Anisimova's 2 and converted 60% of her break points, compared to Anisimova's 50%. Keys won 76% of her first-serve points to Anisimova's 63%, and Keys secured 3 service breaks to Anisimova's 1.

Around the match

  • “Reaching the second week of a Grand Slam for the 25th time is something I am incredibly proud of. If you told me when I was first starting my career it would still be happening now, that would probably be the thing I'm proudest of.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I think it's going to be similar in some ways with Noskova. At this point, every match is its own tournament. She's been playing fantastic tennis, just broken into the top 10, won Berlin. It's going to be a little bit different in that way.”

    Keys M.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “It's been really, really tough. I feel like I'm doing everything I can and working really hard. So for my game to still be at this point, it's really hard to digest and take.”

    Anisimova A.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-03WTA FinalsRRhardAmanda Anisimova4-6 6-3 6-2
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardAmanda Anisimova4-6 6-3 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Anisimova A.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
65%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
61%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
64%
Aces / match·Even
3.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Anisimova A.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
89
90
Break points saved·Even
84
85
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Even
96
94
Tiebreaks·Even
92
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Anisimova A.42%
Keys M.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Anisimova A.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Grass Elo 1768
Surface ELO
5.3+25 Grass Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1914
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1967
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.89 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
Win streak
9.07-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.6Won 77% in United Kingdom (61)
Context
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Anisimova A.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
69
74

Anisimova A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw