Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys — Adelaide Quarter-final

Adelaide · WTA · Quarter-final
Victoria Mboko
CAN8
Victoria Mboko
#10WTA
2006ELO
2006Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$3.3MCAREER
19 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
Madison Keys
USA2
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Mboko V.
6-4 4-6 6-2
Keys M.
Mboko V.
6462
Keys M.
4621

Victoria Mboko defeated Madison Keys 6-4 4-6 6-2 in the Adelaide quarter-final on hard. Victoria Mboko claimed a first win over Madison Keys in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Victoria Mboko closed it out in three sets, 6–4 4–6 6–2.

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-30Roland GarrosR32clayMadison Keys3-6 7-5 5-7
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Mboko V.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Mboko V.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mboko V.Keys M.
58
Serve
36
53
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Mboko V.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.9
3.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mboko V.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
97
94
Break points saved·Even
95
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·
—
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mboko V.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+86 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1920
6.1Overall Elo 2006
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.8
Surface form
5.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
6.5
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Country comfort
6.6
Context
5.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mboko V.Keys M.
Freshness·
—
77

Keys M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%

Draw

Final
Andreeva M.[3]
Mboko V.[8]
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Mboko V.[8]
Birrell K.
6-26-1
Andreeva M.[3]
Shnaider D.[9]
6-36-2
Quarter-finals
Andreeva M.[3]
Joint M.
6-26-0
Birrell K.
Cristian J.
5-76-17-5
Mboko V.[8]
Keys M.[2]
6-44-66-2
Shnaider D.[9]
Navarro E.[6]
6-36-3
R16
Joint M.
Tomljanovic A.
0-2
Birrell K.
Vondrousova M.
W/O
Keys M.[2]
Valentova T.
6-46-1
Mboko V.[8]
Kalinskaya A.
6-23-67-66
Navarro E.[6]
Putintseva Y.
6-16-4
Cristian J.
Kasatkina D.
6-46-0
Andreeva M.[3]
Bouzkova M.
6-36-1
Shnaider D.[9]
Siniakova K.
6-12-67-5
R32
Valentova T.
Ostapenko J.
7-53-2
Tomljanovic A.
Tauson C.[5]
7-650-0
Kasatkina D.
Sakkari M.
7-626-4
Cristian J.
Alexandrova E.[4]
6-46-4
Siniakova K.
Yastremska D.
6-06-1
Shnaider D.[9]
Fernandez L.
7-56-3
Putintseva Y.
Galfi D.
6-46-4
Mboko V.[8]
Haddad Maia B.
5-76-36-2
Birrell K.
Potapova A.
6-46-4
Navarro E.[6]
Jones E.
6-36-3
Joint M.
Kenin S.
7-636-4
Kalinskaya A.
Ruse E.
6-06-3
Bouzkova M.
Badosa P.
3-66-36-4
Vondrousova M.
Samsonova L.[7]
6-14-66-2