Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Madison KeysCharleston Semi-final

Charleston · WTA · Semi-final
#55WTA
1759ELO
1719Clay ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 March 2026
clay
#22WTA
1987ELO
1894Clay ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Starodubtseva Y.
6-1 6-4
Keys M.
Starodubtseva Y.
662
Keys M.
140

Yuliia Starodubtseva defeated Madison Keys 6-1 6-4 in the Charleston semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Madison Keys came in ranked #22, defending last year's round of 16, but Yuliia Starodubtseva had arrived on a 4-match winning run.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Starodubtseva Y.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Starodubtseva Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Starodubtseva Y.Keys M.
61
Serve
42
Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
59%
61%
Return points won·Even
46%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.1
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
75
94
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
96
Break points won·Slight edge
95
90
Deciding sets·Dominant
66
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
76
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Clay Elo 1719
Surface ELO
7.3+175 Clay Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1987
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
7.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.8
Minutes 14d
8.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
7.7
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
96
82

Starodubtseva Y.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 44%