Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison KeysBrisbane Quarter-final

Brisbane · WTA · Quarter-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-3
Keys M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Keys M.
330

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-3 6-3 in the Brisbane quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

52
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-05Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-0 6-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardMadison Keys6-3 2-6 7-5
2024-09-25BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
2023-07-03WimbledonQFgrassAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassMadison Keys6-4 1-6 7-5
2018-08-13CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving85% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Keys M.
96
Serve
36
39
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Even
70%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
94
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
8.9+281 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1920
8.7Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.3Overall Elo 1987
6.7
H2H
3.3
8.0
Surface form
4.4
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Country comfort
6.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
88
82

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw