
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-3 6-4 in the Cincinnati quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-0 6-1 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | F | hard | Madison Keys | 6-3 2-6 7-5 |
| 2024-09-25 | Beijing | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | US Open | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5) |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | QF | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2021-06-14 | Berlin | R16 | grass | Madison Keys | 6-4 1-6 7-5 |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About