Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys — Indian Wells Semi-final

Indian Wells · WTA · Semi-final
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
hard
Madison Keys
USA5
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-0 6-1
Keys M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Keys M.
010

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-0 6-1 in the Indian Wells semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardMadison Keys6-3 2-6 7-5
2024-09-25BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
2023-07-03WimbledonQFgrassAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassMadison Keys6-4 1-6 7-5
2018-08-13CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Keys M.
96
Serve
36
39
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.3
4.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 66). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
98
94
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Keys M.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 51 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
8.9+281 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1920
8.7Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.3Overall Elo 1987
4.6
H2H
5.4
6.1
Surface form
10.0
Win streak
10.014-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
6.0
Country comfort
7.7
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0
2.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
82

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 27%

Draw

Final
Andreeva M.[9]
Sabalenka A.[1]
2-66-46-3
Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Keys M.[5]
6-06-1
Andreeva M.[9]
Swiatek I.[2]
7-611-66-3
Quarter-finals
Andreeva M.[9]
Svitolina E.[23]
7-56-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Zheng Q.[8]
6-36-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Samsonova L.[24]
6-26-3
Keys M.[5]
Bencic B.
6-16-1
R16
Swiatek I.[2]
Muchova K.[15]
6-16-1
Keys M.[5]
Vekic D.[19]
4-67-676-3
Andreeva M.[9]
Rybakina E.[7]
6-16-2
Svitolina E.[23]
Pegula J.[4]
5-76-16-2
Bencic B.
Gauff C.[3]
3-66-36-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kartal S.
6-16-2
Zheng Q.[8]
Kostyuk M.[18]
6-36-2
Samsonova L.[24]
Paolini J.[6]
6-06-4
R32
Kartal S.
Kudermetova P.
7-56-3
Rybakina E.[7]
Boulter K.[25]
6-07-5
Zheng Q.[8]
Sun L.
6-47-5
Samsonova L.[24]
Kasatkina D.[12]
2-66-36-2
Pegula J.[4]
Wang X.
6-26-1
Bencic B.
Shnaider D.[13]
6-46-4
Svitolina E.[23]
Collins D.[14]
6-26-4
Vekic D.[19]
Navarro E.[10]
7-656-1
Keys M.[5]
Mertens E.[28]
6-26-786-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bronzetti L.
6-16-2
Swiatek I.[2]
Yastremska D.
6-06-2
Kostyuk M.[18]
Dolehide C.
6-36-3
Andreeva M.[9]
Tauson C.[22]
6-36-0
Muchova K.[15]
Siniakova K.
7-56-1
Gauff C.[3]
Sakkari M.[29]
7-616-2
Paolini J.[6]
Cristian J.
6-43-66-4
R64
Sakkari M.[29]
Tomova V.
6-06-3
Siniakova K.
Putintseva Y.[21]
6-26-2
Svitolina E.[23]
Krueger A.
6-16-786-3
Bencic B.
Anisimova A.[17]
6-46-736-1
Kasatkina D.[12]
Kenin S.
3-67-56-4
Shnaider D.[13]
Parks A.
6-16-1
Navarro E.[10]
Cirstea S.
3-66-17-63
Keys M.[5]
Potapova A.
6-36-0
Boulter K.[25]
Begu I.
6-726-36-0
Andreeva M.[9]
Gracheva V.
7-56-4
Tauson C.[22]
Osorio C.
7-637-5
Pegula J.[4]
Linette M.
6-46-2
Sun L.
Noskova L.[31]
6-16-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Garcia C.
6-26-0
Kudermetova P.
Alexandrova E.[20]
7-56-2
Mertens E.[28]
Birrell K.
6-47-5
Gauff C.[3]
Uchijima M.
6-43-67-64
Cristian J.
Fernandez L.[27]
5-77-656-3
Kartal S.
Haddad Maia B.[16]
6-26-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
7-646-3
Rybakina E.[7]
Lamens S.
6-36-3
Muchova K.[15]
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-3
Bronzetti L.
Frech M.[30]
6-37-5
Samsonova L.[24]
Mcnally C.
7-686-4
Dolehide C.
Lys E.
7-636-4
Yastremska D.
Jabeur O.[32]
6-36-1
Zheng Q.[8]
Azarenka V.
6-36-4
Vekic D.[19]
Avanesyan E.
6-36-3
Kostyuk M.[18]
Montgomery R.
6-16-3
Wang X.
Ostapenko J.[26]
6-46-4
Collins D.[14]
Baptiste H.
5-76-26-4
Paolini J.[6]
Jovic I.
7-631-66-3
R128
Cocciaretto E.
Zarazua R.
6-41-0
Mcnally C.
Tomljanovic A.
6-40-0
Dolehide C.
Rakhimova K.
6-27-63
Wang X.
Sherif M.
6-47-5
Tomova V.
Danilovic O.
6-26-3
Potapova A.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-756-47-5
Osorio C.
Osaka N.
6-46-4
Linette M.
Stearns P.
6-44-66-3
Montgomery R.
Niemeier J.
3-67-56-2
Yastremska D.
Yuan Y.
6-26-4
Siniakova K.
Carle M.
6-26-1
Garcia C.
Pera B.
6-36-4
Azarenka V.
Ngounoue C.
6-47-67
Baptiste H.
Osuigwe W.
6-16-2
Lamens S.
Bouzkova M.
3-66-36-3
Kudermetova P.
Liu C.
6-46-2
Begu I.
Li A.
7-53-66-1
Bronzetti L.
Kalinina A.
6-47-5
Cirstea S.
Joint M.
6-27-5
Jovic I.
Grabher J.
2-67-56-0
Uchijima M.
Raducanu E.
6-36-2
Gracheva V.
Kvitova P.
4-66-36-4
Cristian J.
Kudermetova V.
6-26-3
Kessler M.
Blinkova A.
6-16-2
Kenin S.
Inglis M.
6-26-1
Bencic B.
Maria T.
6-16-1
Parks A.
Kalinskaya A.
6-46-3
Avanesyan E.
Davis L.
6-46-2
Krueger A.
Volynets K.
0-66-26-2
Birrell K.
Golubic V.
6-46-4
Kartal S.
Lepchenko V.
7-666-2
Sun L.
Sramkova R.
6-31-67-62