Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 3 July 2023
grass
Madison Keys
USA26
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1843Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-2 6-4
Keys M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Keys M.
240

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-2 6-4 in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-03-05Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-0 6-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardMadison Keys6-3 2-6 7-5
2024-09-25BeijingR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassMadison Keys6-4 1-6 7-5
2018-08-13CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving88% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 153). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
98
94
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Keys M.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+145 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Grass Elo 1843
8.7Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.3Overall Elo 1987
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.4
Surface form
9.1
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
5.3
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.1
Country comfort
6.5
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
5.0
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
82

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
18°CDrizzle
Wind 27 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw

Final
Vondrousova M.
Jabeur O.[6]
6-46-4
Semi-finals
Vondrousova M.
Svitolina E.[8]
6-36-3
Jabeur O.[6]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-756-46-3
Quarter-finals
Svitolina E.[8]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-56-756-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Keys M.[26]
6-26-4
Vondrousova M.
Pegula J.[4]
6-42-66-4
Jabeur O.[6]
Rybakina E.[2]
6-756-46-1
R16
Sabalenka A.[1]
Alexandrova E.[18]
6-46-0
Swiatek I.[3]
Bencic B.[11]
6-747-626-3
Vondrousova M.
Bouzkova M.[21]
2-66-46-3
Svitolina E.[8]
Azarenka V.[19]
2-66-47-69
Rybakina E.[2]
Haddad Maia B.[13]
4-1
Keys M.[26]
Andreeva M.[5]
3-67-646-2
Jabeur O.[6]
Kvitova P.[9]
6-06-3
Pegula J.[4]
Tsurenko L.
6-16-3
R32
Bouzkova M.[21]
Garcia C.[5]
7-604-67-5
Alexandrova E.[18]
Galfi D.[10]
6-06-4
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Cirstea S.[17]
6-26-2
Rybakina E.[2]
Boulter K.
6-16-1
Keys M.[26]
Kostyuk M.[12]
6-46-1
Andreeva M.[5]
Potapova A.[27]
6-27-5
Sabalenka A.[1]
Blinkova A.
6-26-3
Bencic B.[11]
Linette M.[23]
6-36-1
Svitolina E.[8]
Kenin S.
7-636-2
Swiatek I.[3]
Martic P.[30]
6-27-5
Jabeur O.[6]
Andreescu B.
3-66-36-4
Azarenka V.[19]
Kasatkina D.[11]
6-26-4
Tsurenko L.
Bogdan A.
4-66-37-618
Vondrousova M.
Vekic D.[31]
6-17-5
Kvitova P.[9]
Stevanovic N.
6-37-5
Pegula J.[4]
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-0
R64
Bencic B.[11]
Collins D.
3-66-47-62
Svitolina E.[8]
Mertens E.[25]
6-11-66-1
Kenin S.
Wang X.
6-46-3
Andreeva M.[5]
Krejcikova B.[10]
6-34-0
Kostyuk M.[12]
Badosa P.
6-21-0
Galfi D.[10]
Niemeier J.
4-67-656-1
Alexandrova E.[18]
Brengle M.
6-747-657-67
Cirstea S.[17]
Ostapenko J.[17]
4-67-666-4
Swiatek I.[3]
Sorribes Tormo S.
6-26-0
Tsurenko L.
Siniakova K.[32]
6-46-1
Garcia C.[5]
Fernandez L.[22]
3-66-47-66
Vekic D.[31]
Stephens S.
4-67-56-4
Keys M.[26]
Golubic V.
7-56-3
Potapova A.[27]
Juvan K.
6-37-5
Sabalenka A.[1]
Gracheva V.
2-67-56-2
Bouzkova M.[21]
Kontaveit A.
6-16-2
Andreescu B.
Kalinina A.[26]
6-24-67-67
Vondrousova M.
Kudermetova V.[12]
6-36-3
Kasatkina D.[11]
Burrage J.
6-06-2
Azarenka V.[19]
Podoroska N.
6-36-0
Cocciaretto E.
Masarova R.
6-36-1
Boulter K.
Tomova V.
6-03-66-3
Martic P.[30]
Parry D.
4-66-36-3
Linette M.[23]
Strycova B.
6-46-766-3
Pegula J.[4]
Bucsa C.
6-16-4
Bogdan A.
Parks A.
1-66-36-2
Jabeur O.[6]
Bai Z.
6-16-1
Stevanovic N.
Korpatsch T.
7-57-5
Kvitova P.[9]
Sasnovich A.[15]
6-26-2
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Cristian J.
4-66-26-4
Rybakina E.[2]
Cornet A.
6-27-62
Blinkova A.
Begu I.[29]
7-56-3
R128
Bogdan A.
Samsonova L.[15]
7-617-64
Masarova R.
Sherif M.[21]
7-53-67-66
Cristian J.
Bronzetti L.[20]
6-36-4
Mertens E.[25]
Hruncakova V.
7-626-2
Andreescu B.
Bondar A.
6-33-66-2
Parry D.
Dart H.
6-746-06-4
Gracheva V.
Giorgi C.
6-26-4
Azarenka V.[19]
Yuan Y.[17]
6-45-76-4
Garcia C.[5]
Volynets K.[5]
6-46-3
Galfi D.[10]
Noskova L.[9]
6-766-26-2
Tsurenko L.
Liu C.
6-33-66-4
Bouzkova M.[21]
Waltert S.
6-16-4
Fernandez L.[22]
Baindl K.
6-44-66-4
Kvitova P.[9]
Paolini J.[13]
6-46-756-1
Potapova A.[27]
Naef C.
6-36-3
Niemeier J.
Muchova K.[10]
6-45-76-1
Alexandrova E.[18]
Navarro E.[23]
6-46-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Udvardy P.
6-36-1
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.[24]
6-37-5
Martic P.[30]
Fruhvirtova L.
7-56-754-1
Sasnovich A.[15]
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-26-1
Ostapenko J.[17]
Minnen G.
6-16-2
Bai Z.
Bonaventure Y.
7-606-1
Rybakina E.[2]
Rogers S.
4-66-16-2
Andreeva M.[5]
Wang X.
6-43-67-5
Linette M.[23]
Teichmann J.[24]
6-36-2
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Putintseva Y.
3-66-06-4
Keys M.[26]
Kartal S.
6-06-3
Parks A.
Friedsam A.
6-46-3
Vekic D.[31]
Zhang S.
6-26-3
Kostyuk M.[12]
Sakkari M.[8]
0-67-56-2
Swiatek I.[3]
Zhu L.[30]
6-16-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Trevisan M.
6-36-1
Strycova B.
Zanevska M.
6-17-5
Collins D.
Grabher J.[12]
6-46-4
Bencic B.[11]
Swan K.
7-56-2
Kasatkina D.[11]
Dolehide C.
6-16-4
Podoroska N.
Martincova T.
3-67-656-4
Svitolina E.[8]
Williams V.
6-46-3
Kenin S.
Gauff C.[7]
6-44-66-2
Pegula J.[4]
Davis L.
6-26-786-3
Bucsa C.
Rakhimova K.
6-34-67-69
Cocciaretto E.
Osorio C.
6-36-4
Kudermetova V.[12]
Kanepi K.
7-646-4
Vondrousova M.
Stearns P.
6-27-5
Kontaveit A.
Stefanini L.
6-46-4
Jabeur O.[6]
Frech M.
6-36-3
Kalinina A.[26]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-46-3
Stevanovic N.
Pliskova K.[18]
6-26-3
Korpatsch T.
Zhao C.
1-66-46-2
Cirstea S.[17]
Maria T.
6-12-66-3
Tomova V.
Pera B.[27]
6-736-36-3
Golubic V.
Schmiedlova A.
6-37-64
Krejcikova B.[10]
Watson H.
6-27-5
Brengle M.
Errani S.
6-36-1
Begu I.[29]
Marino R.
6-23-66-2
Blinkova A.
Wickmayer Y.
6-24-66-3
Wang X.
Hunter S.
6-36-1
Juvan K.
Gasparyan M.
6-06-3
Stephens S.
Peterson R.
6-26-3
Boulter K.
Saville D.
7-646-2
Cornet A.
Hibino N.
6-26-2
Burrage J.
Mcnally C.
6-16-3
Badosa P.
Riske Amritraj A.
6-36-3