Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys — Beijing Round of 16

Beijing · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
Madison Keys
USA18
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$24MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
Sabalenka A.
6-4 6-3
Keys M.
Sabalenka A.
662
Keys M.
430

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Madison Keys 6-4 6-3 in the Beijing round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2, defending last year's quarter-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

5–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-03-05Indian WellsSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-0 6-1
2025-01-13Australian OpenFhardMadison Keys6-3 2-6 7-5
2023-08-28US OpenSFhardAryna Sabalenka0-6 7-6(1) 7-6(5)
2023-07-03WimbledonQFgrassAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassMadison Keys6-4 1-6 7-5
2018-08-13CincinnatiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Keys M.
96
Serve
36
39
Return
29

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.3
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (165 vs 105). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Even
98
94
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Slight edge
100
90
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Even
100
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Keys M.
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 51 days (−1.0)
Form & Matchup
8.9+281 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.1Hard Elo 1920
8.7Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
1.3Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
8.6
Surface form
3.3
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.1
Country comfort
5.5
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Keys M.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
82

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Keys M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw

Final
Gauff C.[4]
Muchova K.
6-16-3
Semi-finals
Muchova K.
Zheng Q.[5]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[4]
Badosa P.[15]
4-66-46-2
Quarter-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Starodubtseva Y.
2-66-26-2
Muchova K.
Sabalenka A.[1]
7-652-66-4
Badosa P.[15]
Zhang S.
6-17-64
Zheng Q.[5]
Andreeva M.[17]
5-76-06-4
R16
Gauff C.[4]
Osaka N.
3-66-40-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Keys M.[18]
6-46-3
Muchova K.
Bucsa C.
6-26-0
Zhang S.
Frech M.[23]
6-46-2
Badosa P.[15]
Pegula J.[2]
6-46-0
Starodubtseva Y.
Kalinskaya A.[10]
7-56-0
Andreeva M.[17]
Linette M.[31]
6-16-3
Zheng Q.[5]
Anisimova A.[34]
3-66-16-2
R32
Gauff C.[4]
Boulter K.[26]
7-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[10]
Stearns P.
3-66-33-1
Andreeva M.[17]
Vekic D.[16]
3-66-46-4
Muchova K.
Cristian J.
6-16-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Avanesyan E.
6-36-1
Osaka N.
Volynets K.
6-36-2
Badosa P.[15]
Sramkova R.
7-57-5
Frech M.[23]
Shnaider D.[12]
0-66-36-4
Anisimova A.[34]
Kasatkina D.[9]
7-616-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Krueger A.
6-26-2
Keys M.[18]
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-36-3
Bucsa C.
Mertens E.[24]
4-66-26-2
Linette M.[31]
Paolini J.[3]
6-46-0
Zheng Q.[5]
Podoroska N.
6-36-2
Zhang S.
Minnen G.
6-26-3
Pegula J.[2]
Kudermetova V.[32]
6-796-16-2
R64
Osaka N.
Putintseva Y.[21]
3-66-46-2
Shnaider D.[12]
Kenin S.
6-26-3
Keys M.[18]
Sorribes Tormo S.
6-26-1
Badosa P.[15]
Tomova V.
6-36-2
Zhang S.
Navarro E.[6]
6-46-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Sawangkaew M.
6-46-1
Krueger A.
Sun L.[29]
6-17-64
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Wei S.
7-56-4
Bucsa C.
Samsonova L.[11]
6-14-66-4
Mertens E.[24]
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-766-3
Muchova K.
Yuan Y.[30]
6-36-1
Avanesyan E.
Dolehide C.[33]
6-35-76-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Siniakova K.[27]
6-26-2
Stearns P.
Fernandez L.[20]
7-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[10]
Baptiste H.
3-67-627-65
Volynets K.
Kostyuk M.[14]
7-56-3
Frech M.[23]
Parks A.
6-45-76-4
Paolini J.[3]
Tauson C.
1-67-56-4
Linette M.[31]
Uchijima M.
6-44-66-3
Andreeva M.[17]
Begu I.
6-756-16-1
Vekic D.[16]
Golubic V.
4-67-636-4
Kasatkina D.[9]
Fett J.
6-16-2
Podoroska N.
Yastremska D.[25]
7-56-746-2
Boulter K.[26]
Townsend T.
6-46-4
Gauff C.[4]
Burel C.
7-56-3
Kudermetova V.[32]
Wang X.
3-66-47-5
Pegula J.[2]
Parry D.
6-17-64
Anisimova A.[34]
Osorio C.
1-66-36-4
Cristian J.
Krejcikova B.[7]
1-66-47-5
Zheng Q.[5]
Rakhimova K.
6-16-1
Minnen G.
Potapova A.[28]
7-52-66-4
Sramkova R.
Alexandrova E.[22]
5-76-46-3
R128
Zhang S.
Kessler M.
7-657-61
Burel C.
Korpatsch T.
6-35-76-3
Tauson C.
Dart H.
5-76-46-1
Bucsa C.
Yao X.
6-36-2
Cristian J.
Bondar A.
6-17-65
Uchijima M.
Shi H.
6-36-4
Golubic V.
Wang X.
7-650-66-3
Fett J.
Wang M.
6-36-4
Avanesyan E.
Bektas E.
6-27-5
Baptiste H.
Gracheva V.
6-06-3
Osaka N.
Bronzetti L.
6-36-2
Townsend T.
Trevisan M.
6-24-66-3
Minnen G.
Andreeva E.
7-56-2
Kenin S.
Bogdan A.
7-56-2
Tomova V.
Tsurenko L.
6-36-3
Sramkova R.
Kalinina A.
6-46-0
Parry D.
Liang E.
4-66-06-0
Krueger A.
Wang Y.
3-66-46-2
Sorribes Tormo S.
Gao X.
6-747-57-5
Muchova K.
Blinkova A.
6-16-1
Podoroska N.
Ren Y.
6-46-2
Rakhimova K.
Birrell K.
6-26-4
Stearns P.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-26-4
Begu I.
Ma Y.
1-66-46-1
Osorio C.
Tomljanovic A.
1-66-36-3
Volynets K.
Galfi D.
7-56-1
Parks A.
Wang Q.
1-66-46-2
Wang X.
Hontama M.
6-16-3
Cocciaretto E.
Rodionova A.
4-66-46-3
Sawangkaew M.
Diyas Z.
6-26-3
Wei S.
Ruse E.
6-47-66
Starodubtseva Y.
Siegemund L.
6-47-63