Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Jelena Ostapenko
LAT
Jelena Ostapenko
#31WTA
1852ELO
1765Grass ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWLW
Sabalenka A.
vs
Ostapenko J.

Aryna Sabalenka faces Jelena Ostapenko in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's semi-final. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC
Sabalenka A.94%
Ostapenko J.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Ostapenko J.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+222 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Grass Elo 1765
9.5Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1852
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.18 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.5Won 75% in GBR (36)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in GBR (63)
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sabalenka A.Cooling
Ostapenko J.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
64%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
56%
42%
Service points won·Clear edge
68%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
49%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.2
3.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
79
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
Freshness·Clear edge
82
68

Sabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartFclayJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-1
2024-05-06RomeQFclayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2023-02-20DubaiR16hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-1
2019-09-09ZhengzhouR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.
3-62-6
Muchova K.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.
1-62-6
Bencic B.
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Golubic V.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Joint M.
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Kenin S.
Swan K.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
Osorio C.
Noskova L.
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.
Timofeeva M.
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
Kalinskaya A.
Liu C.
Gauff C.
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