Jelena Ostapenko vs Aryna SabalenkaStuttgart Final

Stuttgart · WTA · Final
#31WTA
1855ELO
1808Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 April 2025
clay
#1WTA
2220ELO
2103Clay ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Ostapenko J.
6-4 6-1
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
662
Sabalenka A.
410

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 6-1 in the Stuttgart final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Jelena Ostapenko claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-03WimbledonR32grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
2024-05-06RomeQFclayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2023-02-20DubaiR16hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-1
2019-09-09ZhengzhouR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
65%
Aces / match·Even
3.8
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (56 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
98
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
98
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
96
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
87
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
8.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
0.7Clay Elo 1808
Surface ELO
9.3+295 Clay Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1855
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.4
Surface form
8.1
0.0
Win streak
10.09-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.2
Minutes 14d
9.0
Prev. match
Country comfort
5.7
Surface transition
6.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
88

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
15°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 70%