Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena OstapenkoDubai Round of 16

Dubai · WTA · Round of 16
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 February 2023
hard
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
Sabalenka A.
2-6 6-1 6-1
Ostapenko J.
Sabalenka A.
2662
Ostapenko J.
6111

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Jelena Ostapenko 2-6 6-1 6-1 in the Dubai round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-03WimbledonR32grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
2025-04-14StuttgartFclayJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-1
2024-05-06RomeQFclayAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2019-09-09ZhengzhouR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Ostapenko J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Ostapenko J.
96
Serve
10
39
Return
45

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
43%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
54%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
5.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 163). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
88
Break points saved·Clear edge
98
79
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
100
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
10.0+407 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1794
10.0Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
0.0Overall Elo 1855
5.0
H2H
5.0
10.0
Surface form
6.0
10.011-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.5
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
91

Sabalenka A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Ostapenko J.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw