Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 16

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 16
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 5 July 2026 ·
grass
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1972ELO
1741Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLW
Sabalenka A.
vs
Osaka N.

Aryna Sabalenka faces Naomi Osaka in the Wimbledon round of 16 on grass. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's semi-final. Recent grass form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:21 UTC
Sabalenka A.86%
Osaka N.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sabalenka A.
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Osaka N.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.1+246 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Grass Elo 1741
7.6Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1972
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.5Won 76% in GBR (37)
Country comfort
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Sabalenka A.Cooling
Osaka N.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Even
69%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.2
6.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving94% hold

wins 74% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
91
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Even
100
97
Deciding sets·Even
97
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sabalenka A.Osaka N.
Freshness·Slight edge
78
72

Sabalenka A.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-01Roland GarrosR16clayAryna Sabalenka7-5 6-3
2026-04-21MadridR16clayAryna Sabalenka6-7(1) 6-3 6-2
2026-03-04Indian WellsR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-2 6-4
2018-08-27US OpenR16hardNaomi Osaka6-3 2-6 6-4
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
1-63-6
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.
Jovic I.
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.
Kalinskaya A.
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.
Swiatek I.
Anisimova A.
Keys M.
Cirstea S.
Noskova L.
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.
Rybakina E.
Sabalenka A.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Krejcikova B.
Pegula J.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
Gauff C.
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