Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Daria Kasatkina
AUS
Daria Kasatkina
#68WTA
1795ELO
1666Grass ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
No.1 Court · 1st on
Naomi Osaka
JPN14
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Kasatkina D.
1-6 3-6
Osaka N.
Kasatkina D.
130
Osaka N.
662

Naomi Osaka advanced to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon by defeating Daria Kasatkina in the Round of 32, 6-1, 6-3. Osaka hit 5 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Kasatkina had 1 ace and 5 double faults. Osaka converted 42% of her break points and broke Kasatkina's serve 5 times, while Kasatkina converted all 1 of her break points and broke Osaka's serve once.

Around the match

  • “In my career, I've actually never won on this court. So I'm really glad to have made a good memory here. Thank you for cheering us on, it was a really big honour for me to play.”

    Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “I don't think I should be telling you this, but she was kind of bad yesterday. We tried to take her to the park, but then she needed to go to time out. She blew out her candles and made a wish, I hope her wish is to behave better, but if not, today's a new day.”

    Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR32hardNaomi Osaka6-0 4-6 6-3
2024-05-06RomeR32clayNaomi Osaka6-3 6-3
2018-03-05Indian WellsFhardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
61%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
59%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
5.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.3
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
53
93
Break points saved·Dominant
21
85
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
91
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kasatkina D.17%
Osaka N.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kasatkina D.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Osaka N.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1684
Surface ELO
5.7+58 Grass Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1806
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1972
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.54 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
5.9Won 64% in United Kingdom (45)
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in United Kingdom (21)
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
Freshness·Even
91
90

Kasatkina D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw