Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 32

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 32
Daria Kasatkina
AUS
Daria Kasatkina
#65WTA
1806ELO
1684Grass ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLWWLW
—
Sets
Friday, 3 July 2026 ·
grass
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1972ELO
1741Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLWW
Kasatkina D.
vs
Osaka N.

Daria Kasatkina faces Naomi Osaka in the Wimbledon round of 32 on grass. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 32.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:22 UTC
Kasatkina D.17%
Osaka N.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kasatkina D.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Osaka N.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Grass Elo 1684
Surface ELO
5.7+58 Grass Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1806
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1972
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
4.64 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.08 of last 10 on grass
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Won 66% in GBR (44)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Kasatkina D.Cooling
Osaka N.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

17 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
62%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
58%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
51%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
53%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.8
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.4
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Serve advantage — Kasatkina D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
79
91
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
96
Break points won·Even
100
97
Deciding sets·Slight edge
92
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
54
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kasatkina D.Osaka N.
Freshness·Slight edge
80
72

Kasatkina D.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-25US OpenR32hardNaomi Osaka6-0 4-6 6-3
2024-05-06RomeR32clayNaomi Osaka6-3 6-3
2018-03-05Indian WellsFhardNaomi Osaka6-3 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.
3-62-6
Muchova K.
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.
Bartunkova N.
1-4
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.
Pegula J.
Sorribes Tormo S.
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.
Tararudee L.
Maria T.
Jovic I.
Bencic B.
Wang X.
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.
4-6 5-3
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.
3-6 5-3
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
Sabalenka A.
Ostapenko J.
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Sawangkaew M.
—
—
Bouzas Maneiro J.
—
—
Liu C.
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—