Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens — Bad Homburg Round of 16

Bad Homburg · WTA · Round of 16

JPN

Naomi Osaka

#15WTA

1972ELO

1741Grass ELO

$1.0MYTD

$26MCAREER

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWWLWWLW

—

Sets

Tuesday, 23 June 2026 · 15:30

grass

BEL

Elise Mertens

#26WTA

1898ELO

1753Grass ELO

$1.5MYTD

$19MCAREER

30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLWLWL

Osaka N.

Mertens E.

Naomi Osaka faces Elise Mertens in the Bad Homburg round of 16 on grass. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #15, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC

Osaka N.56%

Mertens E.44%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Naomi Osaka 0 games in 14 days, Elise Mertens 72.
Head-to-head: Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head 4–3, 1–0 on grass. Last met at Toronto 2024.
Last match: Naomi Osaka dropped just 5 games past Magdalena Frech.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Osaka N.

5.9

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Mertens E.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.9Grass Elo 1741

Surface ELO

5.1+12 Grass Elo edge

5.8Overall Elo 1972

ELO gap

4.2Overall Elo 1898

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

5.85 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

6.26 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the R32 here last year

Heat performance

8.5Excels in hot weather

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Osaka N.Stable

Mertens E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

7 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season

Osaka N.Mertens E.

1st serve in·Even

62%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

70%

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

Service points won·Even

61%

Return points won·Slight edge

41%

47%

Break points saved·Clear edge

65%

52%

Aces / match·Clear edge

6.4

4.0

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.3

3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Osaka N.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Serve advantage — Mertens E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Osaka N.Mertens E.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Osaka N.Mertens E.

Freshness·Clear edge

100

Osaka N.: 21 days rest · Mertens E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Fastbig serves, short points

SlowFast

Weather forecast

31°CPartly cloudy

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

4–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-08-05	Toronto	R32	hard	Elise Mertens	6-3 6-4
2024-06-10	s Hertogenbosch	R32	grass	Naomi Osaka	6-2 6-4
2024-03-06	Indian Wells	R32	hard	Elise Mertens	7-5 6-4
2021-03-22	Miami	R16	hard	Naomi Osaka	6-3 6-3
2020-08-24	Cincinnati	SF	hard	Naomi Osaka	6-2 7-6(5)
2019-09-16	Osaka	SF	hard	Naomi Osaka	6-4 6-1
2017-09-25	Wuhan	R64	hard	Elise Mertens	6-4 1-6 6-4