

Naomi Osaka defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-3 6-2 in the Indian Wells final on hard. The result followed the form book — Naomi Osaka came in ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 3–0, defending last year's round of 32. Naomi Osaka extended the head-to-head to 4–0.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Wimbledon | R32 | grass | Naomi Osaka | 1-6 3-6 |
| 2025-08-25 | US Open | R32 | hard | Naomi Osaka | 6-0 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome | R32 | clay | Naomi Osaka | 6-3 6-3 |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (196 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Osaka N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About