Maria Sakkari vs Naomi OsakaUnited Cup Round Robin

United Cup · WTA · Round Robin
#37WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Sakkari M.
6-4 6-2
Osaka N.
Sakkari M.
662
Osaka N.
420

Maria Sakkari defeated Naomi Osaka 6-4 6-2 in the United Cup round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Naomi Osaka came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 3–2. Maria Sakkari narrowed the head-to-head to 3–3.

Key context

Head to head

23
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-03-22MiamiQFhardMaria Sakkari6-0 6-4
2020-01-06BrisbaneR32hardNaomi Osaka6-2 6-7(4) 6-3
2019-06-17BirminghamR32grassNaomi Osaka6-1 4-6 6-3
2018-08-13CincinnatiR64hardMaria Sakkari6-3 7-6(8)
2018-03-05Indian WellsR16hardNaomi Osaka6-1 5-7 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving75% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Osaka N.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sakkari M.Osaka N.
24
Serve
70
39
Return
60

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.9
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
81
91
Break points saved·Even
94
96
Break points won·Slight edge
87
97
Deciding sets·Clear edge
77
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
85
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 77 days (−1.2)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 84 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1796
Surface ELO
6.2+126 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1987
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.4
Surface form
5.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
88

Sakkari M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast