Daria Kasatkina vs Maria SakkariAdelaide Round of 32

Adelaide · WTA · Round of 32
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 January 2026
hard
#43WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$901kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
Kasatkina D.
7-6 6-4
Sakkari M.
Kasatkina D.
7762
Sakkari M.
6240

Daria Kasatkina defeated Maria Sakkari 7-6 6-4 in the Adelaide round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Maria Sakkari came in ranked #43, defending last year's round of 16. Daria Kasatkina extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-06-13BerlinQFgrassMaria Sakkari6-0 6-3
2022-04-28MadridR32clayDaria Kasatkina3-6 6-3 6-1
2018-08-06MontrealR64hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 4-6 6-1
2018-05-28Roland GarrosR32clayDaria Kasatkina6-1 1-6 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Sakkari M.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kasatkina D.Sakkari M.
0
Serve
24
95
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
70%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
51%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
65%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
81
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
94
Break points won·Clear edge
100
87
Deciding sets·Clear edge
93
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1757
Surface ELO
5.5+39 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1812
5.0
H2H
5.0
1.6
Surface form
5.5
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
7.1
Country comfort
5.2
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
89
89

Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sakkari M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 32%