Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Berlin Round of 16
BLR1
Sabalenka A.
Aryna Sabalenka faces Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. Aryna Sabalenka holds the paper edge — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's semi-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Sabalenka A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Aryna Sabalenka comes in with 12 days of rest and 48 games in 14d, vs Ekaterina Alexandrova's 7 and 23.
- Serve & return: Aryna Sabalenka brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 92), Ekaterina Alexandrova the stronger return game (Return Rating 47).
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4–3, 1–1 on grass. Last met at Doha 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSabalenka A.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Alexandrova E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
4–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | Doha | R32 | hard | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 3-6 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2024-08-26 | US Open | R32 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 2-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2022-06-06 | s Hertogenbosch | F | grass | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 7-5 6-0 |
| 2021-10-18 | Moscow | QF | hard | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2019-01-28 | St. Petersburg | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2018-12-31 | Shenzhen | R16 | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |