Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aryna SabalenkaDoha Round of 32

Doha · WTA · Round of 32
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 9 February 2025
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Alexandrova E.
3-6 6-3 7-6
Sabalenka A.
Alexandrova E.
36772
Sabalenka A.
63651

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 6-3 7-6 in the Doha round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2, but Ekaterina Alexandrova had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Ekaterina Alexandrova narrowed the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

25
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-17BerlinR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-2
2023-07-03WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-0
2022-06-06s HertogenboschFgrassEkaterina Alexandrova7-5 6-0
2021-10-18MoscowQFhardEkaterina Alexandrova6-3 6-4
2019-01-28St. PetersburgQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2018-12-31ShenzhenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alexandrova E.Sabalenka A.
52
Serve
96
42
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Even
4.7
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (85 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
65
98
Break points saved·Even
94
98
Break points won·Even
98
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
10.0+402 Hard Elo edge
0.1Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
9.9Overall Elo 2220
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
9.1
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.0
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
88

Alexandrova E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw