Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Aryna SabalenkaMoscow Quarter-final

Moscow · WTA · Quarter-final
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$761kYTD
$10MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 18 October 2021
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Alexandrova E.
6-3 6-4
Sabalenka A.
Alexandrova E.
662
Sabalenka A.
340

Ekaterina Alexandrova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-3 6-4 in the Moscow quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 5–2. Ekaterina Alexandrova narrowed the head-to-head to 5–3.

Key context

Head to head

25
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-17BerlinR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-4
2025-02-09DohaR32hardEkaterina Alexandrova3-6 6-3 7-6(5)
2024-08-26US OpenR32hardAryna Sabalenka2-6 6-1 6-2
2023-07-03WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-0
2022-06-06s HertogenboschFgrassEkaterina Alexandrova7-5 6-0
2019-01-28St. PetersburgQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2018-12-31ShenzhenR16hardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Alexandrova E.Sabalenka A.
52
Serve
96
42
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
63%
Aces / match·Even
5.0
4.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
65
98
Break points saved·Even
94
98
Break points won·Even
98
100
Deciding sets·Dominant
61
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 35 days (−0.7)
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
10.0+402 Hard Elo edge
0.1Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
9.9Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
3.8
Surface form
5.7
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
88

Alexandrova E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast