Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina MuchovaBrisbane Semi-final

Brisbane · WTA · Semi-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Sabalenka A.
6-3 6-4
Muchova K.
Sabalenka A.
662
Muchova K.
340

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Karolina Muchova 6-3 6-4 in the Brisbane semi-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1. Aryna Sabalenka narrowed the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-25BeijingQFhardKarolina Muchova7-6(5) 2-6 6-4
2023-08-14CincinnatiSFhardKarolina Muchova6-7(4) 6-3 6-2
2023-05-29Roland GarrosSFclayKarolina Muchova7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5
2019-10-22ZhuhaiSFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving87% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Sabalenka A.Muchova K.
96
Serve
70
39
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
98
95
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Slight edge
100
94
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Even
100
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
7.2+167 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 2034
7.1Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 2066
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.0
Surface form
5.9
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.9
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
88
51

Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw

Semi-finals
Sabalenka A.[1]
Muchova K.[11]
6-36-4
Kostyuk M.[16]
Pegula J.[4]
6-06-3