Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka — Beijing Quarter-final

Beijing · WTA · Quarter-final
Karolina Muchova
CZE
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 25 September 2024
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR1
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Muchova K.
7-6 2-6 6-4
Sabalenka A.
Muchova K.
77262
Sabalenka A.
65641

Karolina Muchova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 2-6 6-4 in the Beijing quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, defending last year's quarter-final. Karolina Muchova extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

2–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-4
2023-08-14CincinnatiSFhardKarolina Muchova6-7(4) 6-3 6-2
2023-05-29Roland GarrosSFclayKarolina Muchova7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5
2019-10-22ZhuhaiSFhardAryna Sabalenka7-5 7-6(4)
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve advantage — Sabalenka A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Muchova K.Sabalenka A.
70
Serve
96
44
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
63%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
61%
64%
Aces / match·Even
3.8
4.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (92 vs 165). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Even
95
98
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
99
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Sabalenka A.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 2034
Surface ELO
7.2+167 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 2220
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.1
Surface form
8.6
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
7.1
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Dominant
51
88

Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw

Final
Gauff C.[4]
Muchova K.
6-16-3
Semi-finals
Muchova K.
Zheng Q.[5]
6-36-4
Gauff C.[4]
Badosa P.[15]
4-66-46-2
Quarter-finals
Gauff C.[4]
Starodubtseva Y.
2-66-26-2
Muchova K.
Sabalenka A.[1]
7-652-66-4
Badosa P.[15]
Zhang S.
6-17-64
Zheng Q.[5]
Andreeva M.[17]
5-76-06-4
R16
Gauff C.[4]
Osaka N.
3-66-40-0
Sabalenka A.[1]
Keys M.[18]
6-46-3
Muchova K.
Bucsa C.
6-26-0
Zhang S.
Frech M.[23]
6-46-2
Badosa P.[15]
Pegula J.[2]
6-46-0
Starodubtseva Y.
Kalinskaya A.[10]
7-56-0
Andreeva M.[17]
Linette M.[31]
6-16-3
Zheng Q.[5]
Anisimova A.[34]
3-66-16-2
R32
Gauff C.[4]
Boulter K.[26]
7-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[10]
Stearns P.
3-66-33-1
Andreeva M.[17]
Vekic D.[16]
3-66-46-4
Muchova K.
Cristian J.
6-16-3
Starodubtseva Y.
Avanesyan E.
6-36-1
Osaka N.
Volynets K.
6-36-2
Badosa P.[15]
Sramkova R.
7-57-5
Frech M.[23]
Shnaider D.[12]
0-66-36-4
Anisimova A.[34]
Kasatkina D.[9]
7-616-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Krueger A.
6-26-2
Keys M.[18]
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-36-3
Bucsa C.
Mertens E.[24]
4-66-26-2
Linette M.[31]
Paolini J.[3]
6-46-0
Zheng Q.[5]
Podoroska N.
6-36-2
Zhang S.
Minnen G.
6-26-3
Pegula J.[2]
Kudermetova V.[32]
6-796-16-2
R64
Osaka N.
Putintseva Y.[21]
3-66-46-2
Shnaider D.[12]
Kenin S.
6-26-3
Keys M.[18]
Sorribes Tormo S.
6-26-1
Badosa P.[15]
Tomova V.
6-36-2
Zhang S.
Navarro E.[6]
6-46-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Sawangkaew M.
6-46-1
Krueger A.
Sun L.[29]
6-17-64
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Wei S.
7-56-4
Bucsa C.
Samsonova L.[11]
6-14-66-4
Mertens E.[24]
Cocciaretto E.
6-46-766-3
Muchova K.
Yuan Y.[30]
6-36-1
Avanesyan E.
Dolehide C.[33]
6-35-76-2
Starodubtseva Y.
Siniakova K.[27]
6-26-2
Stearns P.
Fernandez L.[20]
7-56-2
Kalinskaya A.[10]
Baptiste H.
3-67-627-65
Volynets K.
Kostyuk M.[14]
7-56-3
Frech M.[23]
Parks A.
6-45-76-4
Paolini J.[3]
Tauson C.
1-67-56-4
Linette M.[31]
Uchijima M.
6-44-66-3
Andreeva M.[17]
Begu I.
6-756-16-1
Vekic D.[16]
Golubic V.
4-67-636-4
Kasatkina D.[9]
Fett J.
6-16-2
Podoroska N.
Yastremska D.[25]
7-56-746-2
Boulter K.[26]
Townsend T.
6-46-4
Gauff C.[4]
Burel C.
7-56-3
Kudermetova V.[32]
Wang X.
3-66-47-5
Pegula J.[2]
Parry D.
6-17-64
Anisimova A.[34]
Osorio C.
1-66-36-4
Cristian J.
Krejcikova B.[7]
1-66-47-5
Zheng Q.[5]
Rakhimova K.
6-16-1
Minnen G.
Potapova A.[28]
7-52-66-4
Sramkova R.
Alexandrova E.[22]
5-76-46-3
R128
Zhang S.
Kessler M.
7-657-61
Burel C.
Korpatsch T.
6-35-76-3
Tauson C.
Dart H.
5-76-46-1
Bucsa C.
Yao X.
6-36-2
Cristian J.
Bondar A.
6-17-65
Uchijima M.
Shi H.
6-36-4
Golubic V.
Wang X.
7-650-66-3
Fett J.
Wang M.
6-36-4
Avanesyan E.
Bektas E.
6-27-5
Baptiste H.
Gracheva V.
6-06-3
Osaka N.
Bronzetti L.
6-36-2
Townsend T.
Trevisan M.
6-24-66-3
Minnen G.
Andreeva E.
7-56-2
Kenin S.
Bogdan A.
7-56-2
Tomova V.
Tsurenko L.
6-36-3
Sramkova R.
Kalinina A.
6-46-0
Parry D.
Liang E.
4-66-06-0
Krueger A.
Wang Y.
3-66-46-2
Sorribes Tormo S.
Gao X.
6-747-57-5
Muchova K.
Blinkova A.
6-16-1
Podoroska N.
Ren Y.
6-46-2
Rakhimova K.
Birrell K.
6-26-4
Stearns P.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-26-4
Begu I.
Ma Y.
1-66-46-1
Osorio C.
Tomljanovic A.
1-66-36-3
Volynets K.
Galfi D.
7-56-1
Parks A.
Wang Q.
1-66-46-2
Wang X.
Hontama M.
6-16-3
Cocciaretto E.
Rodionova A.
4-66-46-3
Sawangkaew M.
Diyas Z.
6-26-3
Wei S.
Ruse E.
6-47-66
Starodubtseva Y.
Siegemund L.
6-47-63