Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka — Roland Garros Semi-final
Karolina Muchova defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 6-7 7-5 in the Roland Garros semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 32. Karolina Muchova claimed a first win over Aryna Sabalenka in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.
Key context
- Match story: Karolina Muchova edged Aryna Sabalenka in three tight sets (7–6 6–7 7–5).
How the match was decided
Auto-generatedMuchova K. came through in three sets.
Common opponents
10 shared · last 12 monthsMuchova K. and Sabalenka A. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Muchova K. went 3–8 (27%) against them, Sabalenka A. 9–5 (64%). Sabalenka A. came out clearly better against 6 of 10 comparable opponents, Muchova K. against 0.
3–827%Muchova K. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents9–564%Sabalenka A. · better vs 6
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
11–17Sets19–14
140–152Games172–153
3–5Tiebreaks2–3
1–5Deciding sets4–1
vs Rybakina E.#1L6-7 6-2 4-6Indian Wells · hardL6-7 4-6Indian Wells · hard
vs Bencic B.#12W6-1 6-4Dubai · hardW7-5 6-2Australian Open · hard
vs Cirstea S.#16L5-7 1-6Miami · hardL4-6 4-6Miami · hard
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vs Burel C.#218L6-2 6-7 3-6Angers 125 · hardW6-0 6-2US Open · hard- vs Begu I.#451L4-6 5-7Madrid · clayW6-3 6-2Adelaide 1 · hard
vs Vondrousova M.#657W6-4 6-7 6-4Indian Wells · hardW6-3 7-5Adelaide 1 · hard- vs Garcia C.#784L7-6 5-7 4-6Doha · hardL6-7(4) 4-6WTA Finals · hard
vs Collins D.L7-6 2-6 6-7Australian Open · hardW3-6 6-3 6-2US Open · hard
vs Jabeur O.L3-6 3-6Berlin · grassW3-6 7-6 7-5Fort Worth Finals · hard
vs Kanepi K.L2-6 6-3 6-7Tallinn · hardW2-6 7-6 6-4US Open · hard
Head-to-head
2 meetings · level 1–111
Clay: Muchova K. leads 1–0 · Hard: Sabalenka A. leads 1–0
- Muchova K.May 2023Roland GarrosThis matchClay7-6 6-7 7-5
- Sabalenka A.October 2019ZhuhaiHard7-5 7-6
Closing odds
Next up
Player context
Before the matchMuchova K.Sabalenka A.2 172ELO2 3201 783Clay ELO1 9828–2Last 108–226Age25178 cmHeight182 cmRightPlaysRightCareer $14.9M2026 $4.5MEarningsCareer $50.4M2026 $5.2M