Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka — Indian Wells Final

Indian Wells · WTA · Final
Elena Rybakina
KAZ10
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 6 March 2023
hard
Aryna Sabalenka
BLR2
Aryna Sabalenka
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rybakina E.
7-6 6-4
Sabalenka A.
Rybakina E.
71362
Sabalenka A.
61140

Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 6-4 in the Indian Wells final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 10–6, defending last year's round of 64. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

6–10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2026-03-04Indian WellsFhardAryna Sabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6(6)
2026-01-19Australian OpenFhardElena Rybakina6-4 4-6 6-4
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(0)
2025-10-06WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-08-07CincinnatiQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 6-4
2025-06-16BerlinQFgrassAryna Sabalenka7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6)
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina6-4 3-6 6-1
2024-04-22MadridSFclayAryna Sabalenka1-6 7-5 7-6(5)
2024-01-01BrisbaneFhardElena Rybakina6-0 6-3
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 3-6 6-3
2023-10-02BeijingQFhardElena Rybakina7-5 6-2
2023-01-16Australian OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-3 4-6 6-3
2021-01-06Abu DhabiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 4-6 6-3
2019-09-23WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 1-6 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Sabalenka A.
100
Serve
96
34
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rybakina E.Sabalenka A.
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
4.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rybakina E.Sabalenka A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
92
98
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rybakina E.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Sabalenka A.
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 2110
Surface ELO
6.0+91 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 2220
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.3
Surface form
8.6
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Minutes 14d
7.2
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
5.6
Context
7.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rybakina E.Sabalenka A.
Freshness·Even
87
84

Rybakina E.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Sabalenka A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw

Final
Rybakina E.[10]
Sabalenka A.[2]
7-6116-4
Semi-finals
Rybakina E.[10]
Swiatek I.[1]
6-26-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Sakkari M.[7]
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Swiatek I.[1]
Cirstea S.
6-26-3
Sakkari M.[7]
Kvitova P.[15]
4-67-56-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Muchova K.
7-642-66-4
Sabalenka A.[2]
Gauff C.[6]
6-46-0
R16
Swiatek I.[1]
Raducanu E.
6-36-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Gracheva V.
6-36-0
Kvitova P.[15]
Pegula J.[3]
6-23-67-611
Sabalenka A.[2]
Krejcikova B.[16]
6-32-66-4
Sakkari M.[7]
Pliskova K.[17]
6-45-76-3
Cirstea S.
Garcia C.[5]
6-44-67-5
Muchova K.
Vondrousova M.
6-46-726-4
Gauff C.[6]
Peterson R.
6-31-66-4
R32
Raducanu E.
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-12-66-4
Garcia C.[5]
Fernandez L.[30]
6-46-756-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Badosa P.[21]
6-37-5
Sakkari M.[7]
Kalinina A.[27]
3-66-26-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Ostapenko J.[24]
0-66-06-4
Swiatek I.[1]
Andreescu B.[32]
6-37-61
Krejcikova B.[16]
Wang X.
6-26-716-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Tsurenko L.
W/O
Muchova K.
Trevisan M.[23]
6-43-66-4
Gracheva V.
Kasatkina D.[8]
6-46-4
Cirstea S.
Pera B.
6-36-1
Pegula J.[3]
Potapova A.[26]
3-66-47-5
Gauff C.[6]
Noskova L.
6-46-3
Peterson R.
Teichmann J.
3-66-36-1
Pliskova K.[17]
Kudermetova V.[11]
6-17-5
Vondrousova M.
Jabeur O.[4]
7-656-4
R64
Swiatek I.[1]
Liu C.
6-06-1
Andreescu B.[32]
Stearns P.
4-66-46-3
Cirstea S.
Keys M.[19]
6-1
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Siniakova K.
5-77-646-3
Pera B.
Samsonova L.[12]
2-67-687-66
Rybakina E.[10]
Kenin S.
7-667-65
Fernandez L.[30]
Navarro E.
6-26-4
Trevisan M.[23]
Brengle M.
5-76-16-2
Muchova K.
Azarenka V.[14]
7-616-3
Pliskova K.[17]
Kalinskaya A.
2-66-06-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Mandlik E.
6-17-5
Potapova A.[26]
Wang X.
4-67-646-2
Gauff C.[6]
Bucsa C.
6-26-4
Noskova L.
Anisimova A.[31]
7-666-3
Teichmann J.
Bencic B.[9]
3-66-36-3
Krejcikova B.[16]
Yastremska D.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Rodina E.
6-26-0
Peterson R.
Zhang S.[22]
3-0
Pegula J.[3]
Giorgi C.
3-66-16-2
Ostapenko J.[24]
Sasnovich A.
7-53-66-2
Vondrousova M.
Bouzkova M.[28]
6-16-1
Kudermetova V.[11]
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Gracheva V.
Martic P.[25]
6-36-2
Wang X.
Alexandrova E.[18]
6-26-3
Badosa P.[21]
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-27-5
Kasatkina D.[8]
Maria T.
6-26-1
Tsurenko L.
Vekic D.[29]
2-66-26-2
Jabeur O.[4]
Frech M.
4-66-46-1
Sakkari M.[7]
Rogers S.
2-66-46-0
Garcia C.[5]
Galfi D.
6-16-746-4
Kalinina A.[27]
Fruhvirtova L.
4-66-47-5
Raducanu E.
Linette M.[20]
7-636-2
R128
Navarro E.
Mcnally C.
1-66-16-1
Vondrousova M.
Marino R.
6-26-2
Brengle M.
Siegemund L.
7-656-4
Rogers S.
Volynets K.
6-44-66-1
Fruhvirtova L.
Sherif M.
0-66-26-3
Kalinskaya A.
Parks A.
6-16-1
Noskova L.
Begu I.
7-676-1
Gracheva V.
Bonaventure Y.
6-26-2
Galfi D.
Collins D.
6-46-4
Bucsa C.
Swan K.
7-667-5
Kenin S.
Stephens S.
6-46-1
Liu C.
Schmiedlova A.
7-656-3
Stearns P.
Masarova R.
4-66-46-4
Raducanu E.
Kovinic D.
6-26-3
Pera B.
Bronzetti L.
7-54-66-3
Muchova K.
Putintseva Y.
6-34-66-4
Parrizas Diaz N.
Cocciaretto E.
6-37-5
Maria T.
Paolini J.
7-56-1
Sasnovich A.
Kanepi K.
6-37-65
Wang X.
Danilovic O.
4-66-26-3
Giorgi C.
Rus A.
6-36-3
Teichmann J.
Krueger A.
6-16-4
Yastremska D.
Bondar A.
6-36-4
Wang X.
Mertens E.
6-36-1
Blinkova A.
Li A.
6-16-2
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-2
Peterson R.
Kostyuk M.
7-55-77-5
Tsurenko L.
Zhu L.
6-46-3
Rodina E.
Cornet A.
6-27-5
Siniakova K.
Niemeier J.
7-56-4
Frech M.
Zanevska M.
4-66-46-2
Mandlik E.
Riske Amritraj A.
6-35-77-61