Elena Rybakina vs Aryna SabalenkaBeijing Quarter-final

Beijing · WTA · Quarter-final
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 2 October 2023
hard
#1WTA
2220ELO
2201Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rybakina E.
7-5 6-2
Sabalenka A.
Rybakina E.
762
Sabalenka A.
520

Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 6-2 in the Beijing quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 10–6. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

Head to head

610
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2026-03-04Indian WellsFhardAryna Sabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6(6)
2026-01-19Australian OpenFhardElena Rybakina6-4 4-6 6-4
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(0)
2025-10-06WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-08-07CincinnatiQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 6-4
2025-06-16BerlinQFgrassAryna Sabalenka7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6)
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina6-4 3-6 6-1
2024-04-22MadridSFclayAryna Sabalenka1-6 7-5 7-6(5)
2024-01-01BrisbaneFhardElena Rybakina6-0 6-3
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 3-6 6-3
2023-03-06Indian WellsFhardElena Rybakina7-6(11) 6-4
2023-01-16Australian OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-3 4-6 6-3
2021-01-06Abu DhabiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 4-6 6-3
2019-09-23WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 1-6 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Sabalenka A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Sabalenka A.
100
Serve
96
34
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
45%
Break points saved·Even
64%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.9
4.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.9
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
92
98
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
96
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 49 days (−1.0)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 49 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 2110
Surface ELO
6.0+91 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 2220
3.9
H2H
6.1
6.6
Surface form
7.2
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
90

Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw