

Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka 7-5 6-2 in the Beijing quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 10–6. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 10–7.
| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Miami | SF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 3-6 6-3 7-6(6) |
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Riyadh Finals | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-3 7-6(0) |
| 2025-10-06 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati | QF | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Berlin | QF | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6) |
| 2024-11-04 | Riyadh Finals | RR | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid | SF | clay | Aryna Sabalenka | 1-6 7-5 7-6(5) |
| 2024-01-01 | Brisbane | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2023-10-30 | Cancun Finals | RR | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells | F | hard | Elena Rybakina | 7-6(11) 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | F | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | R16 | grass | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2021-01-06 | Abu Dhabi | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-4 4-6 6-3 |
| 2019-09-23 | Wuhan | QF | hard | Aryna Sabalenka | 6-3 1-6 6-1 |
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About