Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena RybakinaBerlin Quarter-final

Berlin · WTA · Quarter-final
#1WTA
2220ELO
1987Grass ELO
$4.7MYTD
$50MCAREER
28 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 16 June 2025
grass
#2WTA
2122ELO
1884Grass ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Sabalenka A.
7-6 3-6 7-6
Rybakina E.
Sabalenka A.
783782
Rybakina E.
666661

Aryna Sabalenka defeated Elena Rybakina 7-6 3-6 7-6 in the Berlin quarter-final on grass. The result followed the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 9–7, defending last year's quarter-final. Aryna Sabalenka extended the head-to-head to 10–7.

Key context

  • Match story: Aryna Sabalenka closed it out in three sets, 7–6 3–6 7–6.

Head to head

97
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-17MiamiSFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 6-3
2026-03-04Indian WellsFhardAryna Sabalenka3-6 6-3 7-6(6)
2026-01-19Australian OpenFhardElena Rybakina6-4 4-6 6-4
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsFhardElena Rybakina6-3 7-6(0)
2025-10-06WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 6-3
2025-08-07CincinnatiQFhardElena Rybakina6-1 6-4
2024-11-04Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina6-4 3-6 6-1
2024-04-22MadridSFclayAryna Sabalenka1-6 7-5 7-6(5)
2024-01-01BrisbaneFhardElena Rybakina6-0 6-3
2023-10-30Cancun FinalsRRhardAryna Sabalenka6-2 3-6 6-3
2023-10-02BeijingQFhardElena Rybakina7-5 6-2
2023-03-06Indian WellsFhardElena Rybakina7-6(11) 6-4
2023-01-16Australian OpenFhardAryna Sabalenka4-6 6-3 6-4
2021-06-28WimbledonR16grassAryna Sabalenka6-3 4-6 6-3
2021-01-06Abu DhabiQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-4 4-6 6-3
2019-09-23WuhanQFhardAryna Sabalenka6-3 1-6 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Sabalenka A.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Sabalenka A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
65%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (90 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
98
92
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+104 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Grass Elo 1884
5.9Overall Elo 2220
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 2122
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
6.7
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
8.1
Prev. match
9.0
5.8
Country comfort
3.0
Surface transition
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
92

Sabalenka A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 62%