Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova — Indian Wells Quarter-final

Indian Wells · WTA · Quarter-final
Elena Rybakina
KAZ10
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 March 2023
hard
Karolina Muchova
CZE
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Rybakina E.
7-6 2-6 6-4
Muchova K.
Rybakina E.
77262
Muchova K.
64641

Elena Rybakina defeated Karolina Muchova 7-6 2-6 6-4 in the Indian Wells quarter-final on hard. The result followed the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, defending last year's quarter-final. Elena Rybakina narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Elena Rybakina closed it out in three sets, 7–6 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13StuttgartFclayElena Rybakina7-5 6-1
2026-01-04BrisbaneQFhardKarolina Muchova6-2 2-6 6-4
2019-08-26US OpenR128hardKarolina Muchova6-4 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakina E.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rybakina E.Muchova K.
100
Serve
70
34
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Rybakina E.Muchova K.
1st serve in·Even
59%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.9
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 143). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rybakina E.Muchova K.
Clutch Rating·Even
92
95
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
96
94
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rybakina E.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Muchova K.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
6.2+76 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 2034
6.2Overall Elo 2122
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 2066
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.3
Surface form
6.4
Fatigue & Travel
8.0
Minutes 14d
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rybakina E.Muchova K.
Freshness·Dominant
91
51

Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 33%

Draw

Final
Rybakina E.[10]
Sabalenka A.[2]
7-6116-4
Semi-finals
Rybakina E.[10]
Swiatek I.[1]
6-26-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Sakkari M.[7]
6-26-3
Quarter-finals
Swiatek I.[1]
Cirstea S.
6-26-3
Sakkari M.[7]
Kvitova P.[15]
4-67-56-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Muchova K.
7-642-66-4
Sabalenka A.[2]
Gauff C.[6]
6-46-0
R16
Swiatek I.[1]
Raducanu E.
6-36-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Gracheva V.
6-36-0
Kvitova P.[15]
Pegula J.[3]
6-23-67-611
Sabalenka A.[2]
Krejcikova B.[16]
6-32-66-4
Sakkari M.[7]
Pliskova K.[17]
6-45-76-3
Cirstea S.
Garcia C.[5]
6-44-67-5
Muchova K.
Vondrousova M.
6-46-726-4
Gauff C.[6]
Peterson R.
6-31-66-4
R32
Raducanu E.
Haddad Maia B.[13]
6-12-66-4
Garcia C.[5]
Fernandez L.[30]
6-46-756-1
Rybakina E.[10]
Badosa P.[21]
6-37-5
Sakkari M.[7]
Kalinina A.[27]
3-66-26-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Ostapenko J.[24]
0-66-06-4
Swiatek I.[1]
Andreescu B.[32]
6-37-61
Krejcikova B.[16]
Wang X.
6-26-716-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Tsurenko L.
W/O
Muchova K.
Trevisan M.[23]
6-43-66-4
Gracheva V.
Kasatkina D.[8]
6-46-4
Cirstea S.
Pera B.
6-36-1
Pegula J.[3]
Potapova A.[26]
3-66-47-5
Gauff C.[6]
Noskova L.
6-46-3
Peterson R.
Teichmann J.
3-66-36-1
Pliskova K.[17]
Kudermetova V.[11]
6-17-5
Vondrousova M.
Jabeur O.[4]
7-656-4
R64
Swiatek I.[1]
Liu C.
6-06-1
Andreescu B.[32]
Stearns P.
4-66-46-3
Cirstea S.
Keys M.[19]
6-1
Haddad Maia B.[13]
Siniakova K.
5-77-646-3
Pera B.
Samsonova L.[12]
2-67-687-66
Rybakina E.[10]
Kenin S.
7-667-65
Fernandez L.[30]
Navarro E.
6-26-4
Trevisan M.[23]
Brengle M.
5-76-16-2
Muchova K.
Azarenka V.[14]
7-616-3
Pliskova K.[17]
Kalinskaya A.
2-66-06-4
Kvitova P.[15]
Mandlik E.
6-17-5
Potapova A.[26]
Wang X.
4-67-646-2
Gauff C.[6]
Bucsa C.
6-26-4
Noskova L.
Anisimova A.[31]
7-666-3
Teichmann J.
Bencic B.[9]
3-66-36-3
Krejcikova B.[16]
Yastremska D.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[2]
Rodina E.
6-26-0
Peterson R.
Zhang S.[22]
3-0
Pegula J.[3]
Giorgi C.
3-66-16-2
Ostapenko J.[24]
Sasnovich A.
7-53-66-2
Vondrousova M.
Bouzkova M.[28]
6-16-1
Kudermetova V.[11]
Blinkova A.
6-36-4
Gracheva V.
Martic P.[25]
6-36-2
Wang X.
Alexandrova E.[18]
6-26-3
Badosa P.[21]
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-27-5
Kasatkina D.[8]
Maria T.
6-26-1
Tsurenko L.
Vekic D.[29]
2-66-26-2
Jabeur O.[4]
Frech M.
4-66-46-1
Sakkari M.[7]
Rogers S.
2-66-46-0
Garcia C.[5]
Galfi D.
6-16-746-4
Kalinina A.[27]
Fruhvirtova L.
4-66-47-5
Raducanu E.
Linette M.[20]
7-636-2
R128
Navarro E.
Mcnally C.
1-66-16-1
Vondrousova M.
Marino R.
6-26-2
Brengle M.
Siegemund L.
7-656-4
Rogers S.
Volynets K.
6-44-66-1
Fruhvirtova L.
Sherif M.
0-66-26-3
Kalinskaya A.
Parks A.
6-16-1
Noskova L.
Begu I.
7-676-1
Gracheva V.
Bonaventure Y.
6-26-2
Galfi D.
Collins D.
6-46-4
Bucsa C.
Swan K.
7-667-5
Kenin S.
Stephens S.
6-46-1
Liu C.
Schmiedlova A.
7-656-3
Stearns P.
Masarova R.
4-66-46-4
Raducanu E.
Kovinic D.
6-26-3
Pera B.
Bronzetti L.
7-54-66-3
Muchova K.
Putintseva Y.
6-34-66-4
Parrizas Diaz N.
Cocciaretto E.
6-37-5
Maria T.
Paolini J.
7-56-1
Sasnovich A.
Kanepi K.
6-37-65
Wang X.
Danilovic O.
4-66-26-3
Giorgi C.
Rus A.
6-36-3
Teichmann J.
Krueger A.
6-16-4
Yastremska D.
Bondar A.
6-36-4
Wang X.
Mertens E.
6-36-1
Blinkova A.
Li A.
6-16-2
Cirstea S.
Birrell K.
6-36-2
Peterson R.
Kostyuk M.
7-55-77-5
Tsurenko L.
Zhu L.
6-46-3
Rodina E.
Cornet A.
6-27-5
Siniakova K.
Niemeier J.
7-56-4
Frech M.
Zanevska M.
4-66-46-2
Mandlik E.
Riske Amritraj A.
6-35-77-61