Karolina Muchova vs Elena RybakinaBrisbane Quarter-final

Brisbane · WTA · Quarter-final
#6WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Muchova K.
6-2 2-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Muchova K.
6262
Rybakina E.
2641

Karolina Muchova defeated Elena Rybakina 6-2 2-6 6-4 in the Brisbane quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Karolina Muchova narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-13StuttgartFclayElena Rybakina7-5 6-1
2023-03-06Indian WellsQFhardElena Rybakina7-6(4) 2-6 6-4
2019-08-26US OpenR128hardKarolina Muchova6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Muchova K.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Muchova K.Rybakina E.
70
Serve
100
44
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.2
6.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.2
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
95
92
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
94
96
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 76 days (−1.2)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 64 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 2034
Surface ELO
6.2+76 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 2066
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 2122
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.9
Surface form
9.3
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
56
92

Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw