Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 128
JPN
Jacquemot E.
Elsa Jacquemot faces Naomi Osaka in the Wimbledon round of 128 on grass. Naomi Osaka holds the paper edge — ranked #15, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 200-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Naomi Osaka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 91 vs 33).
- Freshness: Elsa Jacquemot comes in with 5 days of rest and 73 games in 14d, vs Naomi Osaka's 1 and 51.
- Surface form: Elsa Jacquemot 1 of 4, Naomi Osaka 4 of 4 on grass recently — Naomi Osaka the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJacquemot E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.