Anastasia Gasanova vs Naomi Osaka — Wimbledon Round of 64
JPN
Gasanova A.
Anastasia Gasanova faces Naomi Osaka in the Wimbledon round of 64 on grass. Naomi Osaka is the paper favourite — ranked #14, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 310-point grass Elo advantage — but Anastasia Gasanova arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last grass matches to Naomi Osaka's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Naomi Osaka has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 91 vs Anastasia Gasanova's 36).
- Last match: Anastasia Gasanova dropped just 4 games past Emiliana Arango.
- Fatigue load: Anastasia Gasanova carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGasanova A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 77 games (7d) · Osaka N.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.