Anastasia Gasanova vs Naomi OsakaWimbledon Round of 64

Wimbledon · WTA · Round of 64
#193WTA
1491ELO
1432Grass ELO
27 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
grass
No.2 Court · 1st on
#13WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Gasanova A.
3-6 2-6
Osaka N.
Gasanova A.
320
Osaka N.
662

Naomi Osaka defeated Anastasia Gasanova in the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, winning 6-3, 6-2 on the grass courts. Osaka hit 8 aces to Gasanova's 1 and converted 40% of her break points, while Gasanova did not convert any. Osaka won 78% of her first-serve points and broke Gasanova's serve twice, compared to none for Gasanova.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
62%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.9
5.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.7
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
93
Break points saved·Dominant
21
85
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Clear edge
78
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
4
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Gasanova A.5%
Osaka N.95%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
8.2
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.2Grass Elo 1436
Surface ELO
8.8+306 Grass Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1499
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1972
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
8.08 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Country comfort
5.6Won 60% in United Kingdom (20)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
90

Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw