Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1972ELO
1741Grass ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 7 July 2026 ·
grass
Karolina Muchova
CZE
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2041ELO
1774Grass ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWLW
Osaka N.
vs
Muchova K.

Naomi Osaka faces Karolina Muchova in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Karolina Muchova holds the paper edge — ranked #9, defending last year's round of 128, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage. Recent grass form is closely matched. They have met 6 times, the series level at 3–3, Karolina Muchova ahead 1–0 on grass.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC
Osaka N.40%
Muchova K.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Muchova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Muchova K.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.6Grass Elo 1741
Surface ELO
5.4+33 Grass Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1972
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 2041
3.0Trails 0–1 on grass
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on grass
8.48 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
10.08-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.0Won 67% in GBR (21)
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Osaka N.Stable
Muchova K.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

7 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Muchova K.
1st serve in·Even
62%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Clutch Rating·Even
91
93
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
97
94
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Freshness·Even
72
70

Osaka N.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 51%

Head to head

3–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-27Bad HomburgFgrassKarolina Muchova6-1 1-0
2025-08-25US OpenQFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 7-6(3)
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardNaomi Osaka1-6 6-1 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardKarolina Muchova6-3 7-6(5)
2021-04-29MadridR32clayKarolina Muchova6-4 3-6 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR32hardNaomi Osaka6-7(5) 6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →
R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.
Osaka N.
2-66-72
Muchova K.
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.
Gauff C.
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
Paolini J.
Eala A.
Keys M.
Noskova L.
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Pegula J.
Gauff C.
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