Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka — Bad Homburg Final

Bad Homburg · WTA · Final
Karolina Muchova
CZE4
Karolina Muchova
#7WTA
2066ELO
1852Grass ELO
$4.5MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
1 — 0
Sets
Retired
Saturday, 27 June 2026 ·
grass
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1793Grass ELO
$1.8MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Muchova K.
6-1 1-0
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
611
Osaka N.
100

Karolina Muchova won the final of the Bad Homburg grass tournament against Naomi Osaka. Muchova led 6-1, 1-0 when Osaka retired. In the match, Muchova had 0 aces and 2 double faults, while Osaka had 3 aces and 1 double fault.

Around the match

  • Osaka withdrew from the Bad Homburg final due to a right foot injury.

    Osaka N.SRF ↗

  • “Hot like hell – I see not a single empty seat – and that in this heat. It couldn't have gone better for me this week. Okay, ten degrees cooler would have been good.”

    Muchova K.fnp.de ↗

  • “I want to try it in Wimbledon, completely relaxed, in my Los Angeles Lakers Kobe Bryant jersey.”

    Osaka N.fnp.de ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

3–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07WimbledonQFgrassKarolina Muchova6-7 4-6
2025-08-25US OpenQFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 7-6(3)
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardNaomi Osaka1-6 6-1 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardKarolina Muchova6-3 7-6
2021-04-29MadridR32clayKarolina Muchova6-4 3-6 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR32hardNaomi Osaka6-7 6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Muchova K.Osaka N.
1st serve in·Even
65%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Muchova K.Osaka N.
Clutch Rating·Even
92
93
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
85
Break points won·Slight edge
88
98
Deciding sets·Even
97
97
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Muchova K.59%
Osaka N.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Muchova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Muchova K.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Osaka N.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Grass Elo 1741
6.0Overall Elo 2053
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1972
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
5.95 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on grass
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Muchova K.Osaka N.
Freshness·
—
90

Osaka N.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw