Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — Australian Open Round of 64

Australian Open · WTA · Round of 64
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 January 2025
hard
Karolina Muchova
CZE20
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Osaka N.
1-6 6-1 6-3
Muchova K.
Osaka N.
1662
Muchova K.
6131

Naomi Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-1 6-3 in the Australian Open round of 64 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Naomi Osaka narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07WimbledonQFgrassKarolina Muchova6.4-7.7 4-6
2026-06-27Bad HomburgFgrassKarolina Muchova6-1 1-0
2025-08-25US OpenQFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 7-6(3)
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardKarolina Muchova6-3 7-6(5)
2021-04-29MadridR32clayKarolina Muchova6-4 3-6 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR32hardNaomi Osaka6-7(5) 6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Osaka N.Muchova K.
70
Serve
70
60
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Muchova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 61). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Clutch Rating·Even
91
95
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
97
94
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Muchova K.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1922
Surface ELO
6.8+113 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 2066
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.7
Surface form
6.2
Fatigue & Travel
5.9
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
6.4
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Freshness·Clear edge
79
60

Osaka N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw

Final
Keys M.[19]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-32-67-5
Semi-finals
Keys M.[19]
Swiatek I.[2]
5-76-17-68
Sabalenka A.[1]
Badosa P.[11]
6-46-2
Quarter-finals
Keys M.[19]
Svitolina E.[28]
3-66-36-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Navarro E.[8]
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
6-22-66-3
Badosa P.[11]
Gauff C.[3]
7-56-4
R16
Gauff C.[3]
Bencic B.
5-76-26-1
Keys M.[19]
Rybakina E.[6]
6-31-66-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Lys E.
6-06-1
Navarro E.[8]
Kasatkina D.[9]
6-45-77-5
Badosa P.[11]
Danilovic O.
6-17-62
Svitolina E.[28]
Kudermetova V.
6-46-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Andreeva M.[14]
6-16-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Vekic D.[18]
7-606-0
R32
Bencic B.
Osaka N.
7-630-0
Badosa P.[11]
Kostyuk M.[17]
6-44-66-3
Danilovic O.
Pegula J.[7]
7-636-1
Kasatkina D.[9]
Putintseva Y.[24]
7-56-1
Gauff C.[3]
Fernandez L.[30]
6-46-2
Lys E.
Cristian J.
4-66-36-3
Keys M.[19]
Collins D.[10]
6-46-4
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Siegemund L.
6-16-2
Sabalenka A.[1]
Tauson C.
7-656-4
Swiatek I.[2]
Raducanu E.
6-16-0
Vekic D.[18]
Shnaider D.[12]
7-646-737-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Frech M.[23]
6-21-66-2
Navarro E.[8]
Jabeur O.
6-43-66-4
Rybakina E.[6]
Yastremska D.[32]
6-36-4
Svitolina E.[28]
Paolini J.[4]
2-66-46-0
Kudermetova V.
Haddad Maia B.[15]
6-46-2
R64
Danilovic O.
Samsonova L.[25]
6-16-2
Tauson C.
Maria T.
6-26-2
Raducanu E.
Anisimova A.
6-37-5
Collins D.[10]
Aiava D.
7-644-66-2
Jabeur O.
Osorio C.
7-56-3
Rybakina E.[6]
Jovic I.
6-06-3
Lys E.
Gracheva V.
6-23-66-4
Keys M.[19]
Ruse E.
7-612-67-5
Pegula J.[7]
Mertens E.
6-46-2
Osaka N.
Muchova K.[20]
1-66-16-3
Navarro E.[8]
Wang X.
6-33-66-4
Kudermetova V.
Boulter K.[22]
7-632-66-2
Paolini J.[4]
Zarazua R.
6-26-3
Cristian J.
Bronzetti L.
7-57-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Uchijima M.
6-43-67-68
Svitolina E.[28]
Dolehide C.
6-16-4
Shnaider D.[12]
Tomljanovic A.
6-47-5
Gauff C.[3]
Burrage J.
6-37-5
Badosa P.[11]
Gibson T.
6-16-0
Swiatek I.[2]
Sramkova R.
6-06-2
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Potapova A.
7-622-66-2
Putintseva Y.[24]
Zhang S.
6-26-1
Frech M.[23]
Blinkova A.
0-66-06-2
Siegemund L.
Zheng Q.[5]
7-636-3
Kasatkina D.[9]
Wang Y.
6-26-0
Vekic D.[18]
Dart H.
4-66-06-2
Bencic B.
Lamens S.
6-17-63
Haddad Maia B.[15]
Andreeva E.
6-26-3
Kostyuk M.[17]
Niemeier J.
6-36-0
Yastremska D.[32]
Kovinic D.
6-06-1
Fernandez L.[30]
Bucsa C.
3-66-46-4
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-37-5
R128
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
Yuan Y.
6-44-66-3
Kasatkina D.[9]
Tomova V.
6-16-3
Rybakina E.[6]
Jones E.
6-16-1
Raducanu E.
Alexandrova E.[26]
7-647-62
Danilovic O.
Rus A.
6-46-4
Vekic D.[18]
Parry D.
6-46-4
Uchijima M.
Linette M.
4-66-27-68
Collins D.[10]
Snigur D.
7-646-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Stephens S.
6-36-2
Tomljanovic A.
Krueger A.
6-44-66-4
Muchova K.[20]
Podoroska N.
6-16-1
Burrage J.
Jeanjean L.
6-26-4
Mertens E.
Golubic V.
4-67-686-4
Kostyuk M.[17]
Hibino N.
3-66-36-1
Swiatek I.[2]
Siniakova K.
6-36-4
Sramkova R.
Volynets K.
3-66-26-2
Gracheva V.
Mcnally C.
6-36-4
Frech M.[23]
Kudermetova P.
6-46-4
Samsonova L.[25]
Rakhimova K.
6-26-4
Pegula J.[7]
Joint M.
6-36-0
Wang Y.
Bondar A.
3-66-36-4
Osorio C.
Sakkari M.[31]
6-46-746-4
Kudermetova V.
Gadecki O.
6-16-1
Anisimova A.
Carle M.
6-26-3
Bronzetti L.
Azarenka V.[21]
6-27-62
Badosa P.[11]
Wang X.
6-37-65
Keys M.[19]
Li A.
6-47-5
Dolehide C.
Bejlek S.
7-656-2
Paolini J.[4]
Wei S.
6-06-4
Potapova A.
Zidansek T.
6-27-5
Bencic B.
Ostapenko J.[16]
6-37-66
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Kartal S.
6-17-65
Boulter K.[22]
Marino R.
6-43-67-5
Tauson C.
Noskova L.[29]
5-76-36-4
Gibson T.
Sonmez Z.
3-67-656-1
Yastremska D.[32]
Sherif M.
6-16-4
Lys E.
Birrell K.
6-26-2
Jovic I.
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-26-1
Aiava D.
Minnen G.
5-77-57-65
Haddad Maia B.[15]
Riera J.
4-67-56-2
Niemeier J.
Chwalinska M.
6-06-1
Lamens S.
Erjavec V.
7-57-62
Fernandez L.[30]
Starodubtseva Y.
7-56-4
Jabeur O.
Kalinina A.
6-36-3
Siegemund L.
Baptiste H.
4-67-56-4
Wang X.
Grabher J.
6-17-5
Bucsa C.
Paquet C.
6-26-3
Dart H.
Fett J.
7-52-67-67
Navarro E.[8]
Stearns P.
6-757-657-5
Gauff C.[3]
Kenin S.
6-36-3
Osaka N.
Garcia C.
6-33-66-3
Maria T.
Pera B.
7-636-4
Ruse E.
Begu I.
6-46-0
Cristian J.
Martic P.
6-24-67-67
Andreeva E.
Zheng S.
6-17-66
Blinkova A.
Saville D.
1-66-47-5
Andreeva M.[14]
Bouzkova M.
6-36-3
Shnaider D.[12]
Cocciaretto E.
7-646-4
Zheng Q.[5]
Todoni A.
7-636-1
Zhang S.
Kessler M.
6-36-4
Putintseva Y.[24]
Avanesyan E.
4-67-56-2
Zarazua R.
Townsend T.
6-766-16-2
Svitolina E.[28]
Cirstea S.
6-46-4
Kovinic D.
Sun L.
6-37-5