Naomi Osaka vs Karolina MuchovaCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 32
#14WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2020
hard
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Osaka N.
6-7 6-4 6-2
Muchova K.
Osaka N.
65662
Muchova K.
77421

Naomi Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova 6-7 6-4 6-2 in the Cincinnati round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Naomi Osaka narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07WimbledonQFgrassKarolina Muchova6.4-7.7 4-6
2026-06-27Bad HomburgFgrassKarolina Muchova6-1 1-0
2025-08-25US OpenQFhardNaomi Osaka6-4 7-6(3)
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardNaomi Osaka1-6 6-1 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardKarolina Muchova6-3 7-6(5)
2021-04-29MadridR32clayKarolina Muchova6-4 3-6 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Osaka N.Muchova K.
70
Serve
70
60
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
43%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
3.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (158 vs 198). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
91
95
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
97
94
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
82
51

Osaka N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw