Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · WTA · Quarter-final
Naomi Osaka
JPN
Naomi Osaka
#14WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$26MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 25 August 2025
hard
Karolina Muchova
CZE
Karolina Muchova
#9WTA
2066ELO
2034Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Osaka N.
6-4 7-6
Muchova K.
Osaka N.
6772
Muchova K.
463–

Naomi Osaka defeated Karolina Muchova 6-4 7-6 in the US Open quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Karolina Muchova came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 4–2, defending last year's semi-final. Naomi Osaka narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07WimbledonQFgrassKarolina Muchova6.4-7.7 4-6
2026-06-27Bad HomburgFgrassKarolina Muchova6-1 1-0
2025-01-13Australian OpenR64hardNaomi Osaka1-6 6-1 6-3
2024-08-26US OpenR64hardKarolina Muchova6-3 7-6(5)
2021-04-29MadridR32clayKarolina Muchova6-4 3-6 6-1
2020-08-24CincinnatiR32hardNaomi Osaka6-7(5) 6-4 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Osaka N.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Muchova K.

Muchova K.serving80% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Osaka N.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Osaka N.Muchova K.
70
Serve
70
60
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Muchova K.
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.7
3.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (51 vs 61). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Clutch Rating·Even
91
95
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Even
97
94
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Muchova K.
Freshness·Dominant
82
51

Osaka N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Muchova K.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 113 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw

Final
Sabalenka A.
Anisimova A.
6-37-63
Semi-finals
Anisimova A.
Osaka N.
6-747-636-3
Sabalenka A.
Pegula J.
4-66-36-4
Quarter-finals
Sabalenka A.
Vondrousova M.
W/O
Anisimova A.
Swiatek I.
6-46-3
Pegula J.
Krejcikova B.
6-36-3
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
6-47-63
R16
Osaka N.
Gauff C.
6-36-2
Pegula J.
Li A.
6-16-2
Muchova K.
Kostyuk M.
6-36-706-3
Vondrousova M.
Rybakina E.
6-45-76-2
Sabalenka A.
Bucsa C.
6-16-4
Krejcikova B.
Townsend T.
1-67-6136-3
Swiatek I.
Alexandrova E.
6-36-1
Anisimova A.
Haddad Maia B.
6-06-3
R32
Li A.
Hon P.
7-56-3
Bucsa C.
Mertens E.
3-67-56-3
Alexandrova E.
Siegemund L.
6-06-1
Sabalenka A.
Fernandez L.
6-37-62
Pegula J.
Azarenka V.
6-17-5
Townsend T.
Andreeva M.
7-56-2
Vondrousova M.
Paolini J.
7-646-1
Anisimova A.
Cristian J.
6-44-66-2
Swiatek I.
Kalinskaya A.
7-626-4
Osaka N.
Kasatkina D.
6-04-66-3
Haddad Maia B.
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Rybakina E.
Raducanu E.
6-16-2
Gauff C.
Frech M.
6-36-1
Kostyuk M.
Parry D.
3-66-46-2
Muchova K.
Noskova L.
6-756-46-2
Krejcikova B.
Navarro E.
4-66-46-4
R64
Noskova L.
Lys E.
6-43-0
Paolini J.
Jovic I.
6-36-3
Parry D.
Zarazua R.
6-22-67-67
Mertens E.
Sun L.
6-26-3
Anisimova A.
Joint M.
7-626-2
Andreeva M.
Potapova A.
6-16-3
Pegula J.
Blinkova A.
6-16-3
Muchova K.
Cirstea S.
7-606-736-4
Kasatkina D.
Rakhimova K.
6-24-67-5
Osaka N.
Baptiste H.
6-36-1
Swiatek I.
Lamens S.
6-14-66-4
Frech M.
Stearns P.
6-766-36-2
Gauff C.
Vekic D.
7-656-2
Bucsa C.
Eala A.
6-46-3
Cristian J.
Krueger A.
4-66-26-2
Hon P.
Samsonova L.
4-66-36-2
Sakkari M.
Bondar A.
6-36-1
Fernandez L.
Jacquemot E.
2-66-36-2
Sabalenka A.
Kudermetova P.
7-646-2
Haddad Maia B.
Golubic V.
6-16-4
Navarro E.
Mcnally C.
6-26-1
Azarenka V.
Pavlyuchenkova A.
6-36-3
Kalinskaya A.
Putintseva Y.
6-17-5
Rybakina E.
Valentova T.
6-37-67
Raducanu E.
Tjen J.
6-26-1
Vondrousova M.
Kessler M.
7-676-2
Siegemund L.
Zakharova A.
6-46-2
Alexandrova E.
Wang X.
6-26-2
Li A.
Bencic B.
6-36-3
Krejcikova B.
Uchijima M.
6-46-2
Townsend T.
Ostapenko J.
7-56-1
Kostyuk M.
Sonmez Z.
7-56-756-3
R128
Kudermetova P.
Parrizas Diaz N.
2-2
Swiatek I.
Arango E.
6-16-2
Mcnally C.
Teichmann J.
6-26-2
Uchijima M.
Danilovic O.
7-624-67-69
Ostapenko J.
Wang X.
6-46-3
Townsend T.
Ruzic A.
6-46-4
Blinkova A.
Starodubtseva Y.
6-36-1
Sabalenka A.
Masarova R.
7-56-1
Jacquemot E.
Bouzkova M.
6-46-3
Fernandez L.
Marino R.
6-26-1
Sun L.
Osorio C.
6-42-66-0
Bucsa C.
Liu C.
6-26-1
Eala A.
Tauson C.
6-32-67-611
Rybakina E.
Pareja J.
6-36-0
Valentova T.
Bronzetti L.
6-33-66-4
Raducanu E.
Shibahara E.
6-16-2
Tjen J.
Kudermetova V.
6-44-66-4
Kessler M.
Linette M.
7-57-5
Vondrousova M.
Selekhmeteva O.
6-37-63
Li A.
Sramkova R.
4-66-26-4
Jovic I.
Sasnovich A.
7-666-3
Paolini J.
Aiava D.
6-27-64
Hon P.
Jeanjean L.
6-37-5
Pegula J.
Sherif M.
6-06-4
Samsonova L.
Yuan Y.
2-66-46-4
Pavlyuchenkova A.
Yastremska D.
6-757-656-4
Azarenka V.
Inoue H.
7-606-4
Navarro E.
Wang Y.
7-696-3
Lamens S.
Glozman V.
6-46-2
Potapova A.
Zhu L.
6-44-66-2
Putintseva Y.
Cocciaretto E.
6-47-64
Siegemund L.
Shnaider D.
7-632-66-3
Zakharova A.
Avanesyan E.
6-36-4
Wang X.
Dolehide C.
2-66-46-2
Alexandrova E.
Sevastova A.
6-46-1
Bondar A.
Svitolina E.
6-26-4
Sakkari M.
Maria T.
6-36-2
Haddad Maia B.
Kartal S.
6-31-66-1
Krueger A.
Kenin S.
5-76-46-2
Gauff C.
Tomljanovic A.
6-46-727-5
Vekic D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-56-3
Baptiste H.
Siniakova K.
7-56-3
Rakhimova K.
Garcia C.
6-44-66-3
Stearns P.
Semenistaja D.
7-56-0
Frech M.
Gibson T.
6-26-2
Parry D.
Kvitova P.
6-16-0
Sonmez Z.
Volynets K.
6-36-4
Osaka N.
Minnen G.
6-36-4
Kostyuk M.
Boulter K.
6-46-4
Noskova L.
Galfi D.
6-47-5
Lys E.
Jones F.
6-07-5
Cirstea S.
Sierra S.
7-56-0
Bencic B.
Zhang S.
6-36-3
Mertens E.
Ahn A.
6-16-0
Kasatkina D.
Ruse E.
7-56-1
Krejcikova B.
Mboko V.
6-36-2
Andreeva M.
Parks A.
6-06-1
Zarazua R.
Keys M.
6-7107-637-5
Muchova K.
Williams V.
6-32-66-1
Anisimova A.
Birrell K.
6-36-2
Joint M.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-47-66
Cristian J.
Collins D.
6-26-0
Golubic V.
Boisson L.
3-67-636-2
Kalinskaya A.
Ngounoue C.
6-05-76-4